Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:09:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
30 0x30f9…e0b4 sports 320 markets active 1h ago coverage 226d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$98 (+2%) realized +$102 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate79%249W / 67L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$10
14 days+$9
30 days+$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 59% +$31
sports 15% +$18
other 12% +$20
politics 5% $0
world 5% +$18
culture 3% +$11
economics 1% −$2
crypto 0% −$2
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +7.6% -2.6% 100% 25% -3.9%
≤30d 20 -0.1% -9.6% 90% 10% -6.4%
≤90d 72 +4.1% -5.8% 90% 40% -5.8%
all 316 -2.9% -12.1% 79% 55% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 55% -8.0%
10% -20.6% 23% -16.8%
15% -28.2% 7% -24.8%
20% -35.3% 2% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

226d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$102
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses249 / 67
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)316 / 320
History coverage226d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 316 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Another Elon baby by June 30? No 98¢ 96¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-32%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 91¢ 88¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 15 $97 +$4 +4%
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Jun 15 $3 $0 +6%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $7 $0 +7%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +20%
Will "hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande" be the #1 song on Jun 12 $15 $0 +0%
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 12? Jun 12 $3 $0 +1%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $20 +$3 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 5? Jun 05 $2 $0 +9%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -96%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 04 $20 $0 -0%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Jun 01 $102 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 31 $215 +$5 +2%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $132 +$9 +7%
Will Ariana Grande have a #1 hit in the US in May? May 31 $25 +$1 +2%
Will "GOAT" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? May 27 $12 $0 +1%
Will "The Crash" be the top US Netflix movie this week? May 27 $20 $0 +0%
Will Aubry Bracco win Survivor Season 50? May 21 $52 +$2 +5%
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? May 19 $100 +$2 +2%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev May 16 $30 +$3 +9%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $4 +$1 +21%
Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees May 02 $5 $0 +9%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on May 1, 2026? May 01 $20 $0 +0%
Mauthausen: Darwin Blanch vs Matthew William Donald May 01 $2 $0 +12%
Thunder vs. Suns May 01 $2 $0 +23%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets May 01 $2 $0 +23%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 01 $351 +$5 +1%
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners May 01 $93 +$8 +8%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 01 $442 +$22 +5%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 27 $3 −$3 -100%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 27 $2 $0 +14%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 27 $2 $0 +20%
Thunder vs. Suns Apr 27 $2 $0 +24%
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less tha Apr 27 $25 +$2 +8%
Barcelona Open: Alex de Minaur vs Sebastian Ofner Apr 15 $2 $0 +14%
Barcelona Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Otto Virtanen Apr 15 $5 $0 +3%
Oeiras 3: Veronika Erjavec vs Milana Ivantsiv Apr 15 $5 $0 +4%
Pelicans vs. Celtics Apr 14 $2 $0 +13%
Wizards vs. Cavaliers Apr 14 $2 $0 +20%
76ers vs. Pacers Apr 14 $3 $0 +10%
Hornets vs. Knicks Apr 14 $3 $0 +14%
Nets vs. Raptors Apr 14 $4 $0 +4%
Overwatch: Falcons vs ZAN Esports (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 1 Group Stag Apr 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will "Elizabeth Taylor" get 3 million or more views in the first week? Apr 14 $16 $0 +2%
Magic vs. Celtics Apr 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $80 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 08 $10 −$5 -51%
Timberwolves vs. Pacers Apr 08 $2 $0 +14%
Cavaliers vs. Warriors Apr 07 $2 $0 +23%
Suns vs. Grizzlies Apr 02 $2 $0 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $10 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 94¢ $10 1h
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? SELL Yes 86¢ $3 1h
Will "hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande" be the #1 song on BUY Yes 100¢ $15 3d
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $3 3d
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $7 3d
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 12? BUY Yes 99¢ $3 3d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 94¢ $10 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 94¢ $2 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $23 6d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 5? BUY Yes 91¢ $2 10d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 5, 2026? BUY No $1 10d
Another Elon baby by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $10 10d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 98¢ $20 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $20 14d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 91¢ $92 14d
GTA VI released before June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $102 14d
Will "GOAT" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? BUY Yes 99¢ $12 19d
Will Ariana Grande have a #1 hit in the US in May? BUY Yes 98¢ $20 19d
Will "The Crash" be the top US Netflix movie this week? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 21d
Will Ariana Grande have a #1 hit in the US in May? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 21d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 99¢ $150 21d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $100 21d
Will Aubry Bracco win Survivor Season 50? BUY Yes 96¢ $40 26d
GTA VI released before June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $102 26d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 97¢ $50 26d
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? SELL Yes 98¢ $0 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.40 · official $36.40 (match) · 743 history records