Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T08:34:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
30 0x30fd…548a other 76 markets active 2h ago coverage 583d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$49 (+0%) realized +$49 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate23%17W / 57L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$285per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$131now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$9
14 days+$9
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 64% −$14
politics 17% −$13
other 14% −$33
crypto 1% +$2
sports 1% +$105
culture 1% $0
world 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +25.1% +13.2% 25% 25% -7.0%
≤30d 20 -0.1% -9.6% 15% 5% -9.6%
≤90d 63 +0.7% -8.9% 21% 14% -9.2%
all 74 +4.2% -5.7% 23% 15% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 15% -9.3%
10% -14.7% 15% -18.0%
15% -23.0% 15% -25.9%
20% -30.5% 14% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$2 · ×4.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

583d coverage
Net worth$131
Realized+$49
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses17 / 57
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)74 / 76
History coverage583d
Avg bet$285
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $82 $82 +$0 (+0%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $49 $49 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 25 $158 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $18 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $149 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $9 +$10 +101%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $31 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $27 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $29 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 12 $26 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $28 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $31 $0 -0%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $158 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $31 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $32 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $24 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 02 $39 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? Jun 02 $51 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $26 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 30 $23 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $32 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $180 $0 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 22 $25 $0 -0%
Will Rachel Reeves be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 18 $139 $0 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $7 +$11 +152%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $131 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $129 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec May 08 $129 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $142 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 02 $130 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $135 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $141 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $129 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 01 $138 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $133 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $136 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 26 $141 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $140 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $135 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 25 $138 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 24 $129 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $141 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $135 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 17 $273 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $138 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 15 $145 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Apr 14 $132 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 14 $145 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $140 $0 -0%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $6 +$5 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $26 1h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $26 4h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $18 2d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $18 2d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $49 5d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $20 5d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $20 5d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $31 7d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 49¢ $9 7d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $31 7d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $27 8d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $27 8d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $29 8d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $29 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $82 9d
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $26 12d
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $26 13d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $28 14d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $28 14d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 14d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 14d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $20 16d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Philadelphia Phillies 52¢ $9 16d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $21 16d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $31 19d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $31 19d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 21d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 21d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $24 22d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $24 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $130.56 · official $130.56 (match) · 313 history records