Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T11:22:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x3101…7544 sports 5 markets active 19h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (115 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$10,436 (-87%) realized −$10,436 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -65% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -76% what you keep after slip
Net edge-76%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,387per market
Trades / day115.0pace
Fees−$182est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$10,438
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-68.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -64.7% -68.1% 20% 20% -88.8%
≤30d 5 -64.7% -68.1% 20% 20% -88.8%
≤90d 5 -64.7% -68.1% 20% 20% -88.8%
all 5 -64.7% -68.1% 20% 20% -88.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover115.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -68.1% 20% -88.8%
10% -71.2% 20% -89.8%
15% ← realistic here -73.9% 20% -90.8%
20% -76.5% 20% -91.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -88% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -65% · $-wt -88% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
22.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$640 vs −$2,770 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10,436
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Est. fees paid−$182
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2,387
Trades / day115.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: 6666 vs ASTRAL (BO1) - Urban Riga Open #5 Group A Jun 28 $1,550 −$1,541 -99%
Counter-Strike: Honvéd vs OlyBet SB (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 28 $839 +$640 +76%
Counter-Strike: Honvéd vs OlyBet SB - Map 1 Winner Jun 28 $6,506 −$6,497 -100%
Map Handicap: Honvéd (-1.5) vs OlyBet SB (+1.5) Jun 28 $2,849 −$2,848 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $192 −$192 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: 6666 vs ASTRAL (BO1) - Urban Riga Open #5 Group A BUY 6666 30¢ $193 19h
Counter-Strike: 6666 vs ASTRAL (BO1) - Urban Riga Open #5 Group A BUY 6666 40¢ $0 20h
Counter-Strike: 6666 vs ASTRAL (BO1) - Urban Riga Open #5 Group A BUY 6666 40¢ $112 20h
Counter-Strike: 6666 vs ASTRAL (BO1) - Urban Riga Open #5 Group A BUY 6666 40¢ $10 20h
Counter-Strike: 6666 vs ASTRAL (BO1) - Urban Riga Open #5 Group A BUY 6666 40¢ $3 20h
Counter-Strike: 6666 vs ASTRAL (BO1) - Urban Riga Open #5 Group A BUY 6666 40¢ $9 20h
Counter-Strike: 6666 vs ASTRAL (BO1) - Urban Riga Open #5 Group A BUY 6666 40¢ $3 20h
Counter-Strike: 6666 vs ASTRAL (BO1) - Urban Riga Open #5 Group A BUY 6666 40¢ $10 20h
Counter-Strike: 6666 vs ASTRAL (BO1) - Urban Riga Open #5 Group A BUY 6666 40¢ $9 20h
Counter-Strike: 6666 vs ASTRAL (BO1) - Urban Riga Open #5 Group A BUY 6666 40¢ $9 20h
Counter-Strike: 6666 vs ASTRAL (BO1) - Urban Riga Open #5 Group A BUY 6666 40¢ $330 20h
Counter-Strike: 6666 vs ASTRAL (BO1) - Urban Riga Open #5 Group A BUY 6666 40¢ $10 20h
Counter-Strike: 6666 vs ASTRAL (BO1) - Urban Riga Open #5 Group A BUY 6666 40¢ $133 20h
Counter-Strike: 6666 vs ASTRAL (BO1) - Urban Riga Open #5 Group A BUY 6666 40¢ $8 20h
Counter-Strike: 6666 vs ASTRAL (BO1) - Urban Riga Open #5 Group A BUY 6666 40¢ $8 20h
Counter-Strike: 6666 vs ASTRAL (BO1) - Urban Riga Open #5 Group A BUY 6666 40¢ $8 20h
Counter-Strike: 6666 vs ASTRAL (BO1) - Urban Riga Open #5 Group A BUY 6666 40¢ $8 20h
Counter-Strike: 6666 vs ASTRAL (BO1) - Urban Riga Open #5 Group A BUY 6666 40¢ $2 20h
Counter-Strike: 6666 vs ASTRAL (BO1) - Urban Riga Open #5 Group A BUY 6666 40¢ $8 20h
Counter-Strike: 6666 vs ASTRAL (BO1) - Urban Riga Open #5 Group A BUY 6666 40¢ $4 20h
Counter-Strike: 6666 vs ASTRAL (BO1) - Urban Riga Open #5 Group A BUY 6666 40¢ $94 21h
Counter-Strike: 6666 vs ASTRAL (BO1) - Urban Riga Open #5 Group A BUY 6666 38¢ $21 21h
Counter-Strike: 6666 vs ASTRAL (BO1) - Urban Riga Open #5 Group A BUY 6666 37¢ $8 21h
Counter-Strike: 6666 vs ASTRAL (BO1) - Urban Riga Open #5 Group A BUY 6666 36¢ $25 21h
Counter-Strike: 6666 vs ASTRAL (BO1) - Urban Riga Open #5 Group A BUY 6666 34¢ $1 21h
Counter-Strike: 6666 vs ASTRAL (BO1) - Urban Riga Open #5 Group A BUY 6666 38¢ $88 21h
Counter-Strike: 6666 vs ASTRAL (BO1) - Urban Riga Open #5 Group A BUY 6666 37¢ $7 21h
Counter-Strike: 6666 vs ASTRAL (BO1) - Urban Riga Open #5 Group A BUY 6666 36¢ $98 21h
Counter-Strike: 6666 vs ASTRAL (BO1) - Urban Riga Open #5 Group A BUY 6666 33¢ $70 22h
Counter-Strike: 6666 vs ASTRAL (BO1) - Urban Riga Open #5 Group A BUY 6666 33¢ $5 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 116 history records