Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T14:07:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
31 0x3101…b9c6 sports 197 markets active 2h ago coverage 353d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,021 (+3%) realized +$1,028 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate46%87W / 102L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$155per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$1,173now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$243
14 days+$243
30 days+$856
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$2,242
other 25% −$1,114
politics 10% −$130
tech 1% +$4
crypto 1% −$5
finance 1% +$2
world 0% −$10
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-27.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -46.8% -51.9% 27% 27% +5.9%
≤30d 44 -1.8% -11.1% 39% 36% +13.6%
≤90d 61 +16.2% +5.1% 44% 43% +13.6%
all 189 -19.8% -27.5% 46% 29% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.5% 29% -6.4%
10% -34.4% 25% -15.4%
15% -40.7% 21% -23.6%
20% -46.6% 16% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -17% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$96 vs −$72 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

353d coverage
Net worth$1,173
Realized+$1,028
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses87 / 102
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions7
Markets (closed)189 / 197
History coverage353d
Avg bet$155
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 189 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In T1 87¢ 86¢ $500 $497 −$3 (-1%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? No 85¢ 84¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner T1 75¢ 74¢ $200 $196 −$4 (-2%)
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Deep Cross Gaming 15¢ 16¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Deep Cross Gaming 28¢ 28¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 50 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $50 +$5 +11%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $31 −$30 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $71 −$70 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $152 −$150 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 +$47 +93%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $201 +$37 +18%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $102 +$155 +152%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 Mexico? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 2 Brazil? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Brazil? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 1 Haiti? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 2 Qatar? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 - 1 Qatar? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 0 - 0 Qatar? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Canada? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Canada? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 24 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $51 +$30 +60%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $20 +$66 +325%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $202 +$131 +65%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $304 +$217 +71%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $202 +$92 +46%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $132 −$130 -99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 +$68 +442%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $402 +$90 +22%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $15 +$92 +596%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $202 −$200 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $21 −$20 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $201 +$33 +16%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $305 +$334 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3 +$16 +510%
Will Walmart acquire TikTok? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 08 $304 +$260 +85%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the Golden State Warriors make the NBA Playoffs? Apr 30 $7 +$23 +354%
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs Gen.G Global Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Pla Apr 09 $43 −$42 -98%
Counter-Strike: Crashers vs R2 Esports Club (BO3) - CCT South America Mar 30 $8 $0 -4%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs megoshort (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Eur Mar 30 $4 +$4 +117%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs MANA eSports (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Gr Mar 30 $9 $0 -6%
Counter-Strike: HAVU vs Leo Team (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Mar 30 $9 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $21 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 28¢ $51 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 75¢ $201 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 85¢ $301 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Deep Cross Gaming 15¢ $103 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 87¢ $201 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 87¢ $301 2h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 35¢ $31 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $71 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 90¢ $50 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 3d
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 65¢ $152 3d
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 3d
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 Mexico? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 2 Brazil? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 3d
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Brazil? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 3d
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 2 Qatar? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 3d
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 0 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Canada? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Canada? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 3d
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 3d
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 84¢ $201 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $15 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $102 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,172.65 · official $1,172.65 (match) · 699 history records