Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:05:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x3105…5905 crypto 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$64 (-9%) realized −$64 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate31%4W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% −$47
politics 13% −$15
crypto 10% $0
sports 1% $0
economics 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 5 -3.6% -12.8% 60% 0% -19.0%
all 13 -8.4% -17.1% 31% 0% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 0% -17.3%
10% -25.0% 0% -25.2%
15% -32.3% 0% -32.4%
20% -38.9% 0% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$9 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$64
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses4 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage120d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 27 $118 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 05 $250 −$45 -18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 19? May 05 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on April 3? Apr 07 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on March 25? Apr 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on March 19? Mar 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 05 $16 $0 +0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 05 $19 −$3 -15%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 03 $7 −$2 -33%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 02 $196 −$2 -1%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 01 $36 −$7 -19%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 28 $25 −$6 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $118 1h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $118 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes $0 53d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes $5 53d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes $1 53d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes $1 53d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes $5 53d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes $1 53d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes $0 53d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes $0 53d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes $64 53d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes $0 67d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes $49 67d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes $42 67d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes $31 67d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $21 71d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes $127 81d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on April 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $24 86d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes $79 86d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes $1 86d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes $38 86d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes $1 86d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes $1 86d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes $2 86d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes $1 86d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes $2 86d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes $1 86d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes $2 86d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on March 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 94d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on March 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 100d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 58 history records