Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:32:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x3109…4ef4 other 96 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$572 (-12%) realized −$643 · open +$71
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip
Net edge-53%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate18%14W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day13.2pace
Fees−$57est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$1,213now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,428
7 days−$455
14 days−$455
30 days−$455
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% +$75
other 37% −$422
crypto 3% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-49.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 80 -44.2% -49.5% 18% 18% -20.9%
≤30d 80 -44.2% -49.5% 18% 18% -20.9%
≤90d 80 -44.2% -49.5% 18% 18% -20.9%
all 80 -44.2% -49.5% 18% 18% -20.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -49.5% 18% -20.9%
10% -54.3% 18% -28.5%
15% -58.7% 18% -35.4%
20% -62.8% 18% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -44% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -80% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$135 vs −$36 · ×3.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$1,213
Realized−$643
Unrealized+$71
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses14 / 66
Est. fees paid−$57
Open positions13
Markets (closed)80 / 96
History coverage8d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day13.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 1.5 Over 37¢ 36¢ $310 $297 −$13 (-4%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $200 $262 +$63 (+31%)
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 2.5 Over 14¢ 14¢ $145 $145 +$0 (+0%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $75 $102 +$27 (+36%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $78 −$22 (-22%)
Will Morocco reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $70 $77 +$7 (+10%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 32¢ 30¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Mateo Kovačić: 1+ assists Yes 50¢ $7 $42 +$34 (+456%)
Harry Kane: 1+ assists Yes 15¢ 49¢ $9 $29 +$20 (+217%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $21 $21 +$0 (+2%)
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $10 −$40 (-80%)
Jude Bellingham: 1+ assists Yes 18¢ 12¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $152 +$152 +100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Andrej Kramarić: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Croatia to score first vs. England? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Bernardo Silva: 1+ assists Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Ecuador to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Neither team to score first? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals Jun 17 $56 −$56 -100%
Tijjani Reijnders: 1+ assists Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Mehdi Taremi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Donyell Malen: 1+ goals Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Jamal Musiala: 2+ goals Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists Jun 17 $128 −$128 -100%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 17 $113 −$113 -100%
Martin Ødegaard: 1+ assists Jun 17 $51 +$110 +216%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $82 +$147 +180%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assists Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Pedri: 1+ assists Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Michael Olise: 1+ assists Jun 16 $15 +$35 +226%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $203 +$269 +132%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $102 −$29 -28%
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 16 $66 −$66 -100%
Antonio Rüdiger: 1+ goals Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 16 $132 −$132 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 2.5 BUY Over 14¢ $46 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 1.5 BUY Over 37¢ $112 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 32¢ $51 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 2.5 BUY Over 14¢ $103 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 1.5 BUY Over 37¢ $204 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY 23¢ $51 1h
Harry Kane: 1+ assists BUY Yes 16¢ $4 2h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $51 2h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 2h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score AND Will England vs. Croatia BUY 27¢ $20 2h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 3h
Jude Bellingham: 1+ assists BUY Yes 18¢ $5 6h
Harry Kane: 1+ assists BUY Yes 15¢ $5 6h
Mateo Kovačić: 1+ assists BUY Yes $8 6h
Andrej Kramarić: 1+ goals BUY Yes 18¢ $10 6h
Croatia to score first vs. England? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 6h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $102 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $102 8h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 30¢ $31 8h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 55¢ $101 8h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 8h
Bernardo Silva: 1+ assists BUY Yes 22¢ $10 8h
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists BUY Yes 33¢ $76 30h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL 31¢ $73 30h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 34h
Spread: Norway (-3.5) BUY Norway 18¢ $72 35h
Michael Olise: 1+ assists BUY Yes 30¢ $15 36h
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $15 36h
Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 47¢ $25 36h
Nicolás Paz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 16¢ $10 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,213.26 · official $1,278.72 · 167 history records