Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:57:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x310d…4dec sports 81 markets active 1h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,296 (-8%) realized −$5,296 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate52%42W / 39L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$779per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Fees−$620est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days−$913
14 days−$7,876
30 days−$6,154
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$7,863
other 19% +$1,343
world 8% +$731
crypto 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +20.9% +9.4% 61% 45% -11.9%
≤30d 80 -6.6% -15.5% 51% 39% -17.4%
≤90d 81 -6.4% -15.3% 52% 38% -16.4%
all 81 -6.4% -15.3% 52% 38% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.3% 38% -16.4%
10% ← realistic here -23.4% 26% -24.4%
15% -30.8% 22% -31.7%
20% -37.6% 19% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$1,006) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -18% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$248 vs −$416 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5,296
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses42 / 39
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$620
Open positions0
Markets (closed)81 / 81
History coverage30d
Avg bet$779
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 81 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $70 −$22 -32%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $42 +$27 +65%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $344 −$302 -88%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $137 +$205 +150%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $50 +$89 +178%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $19 +$32 +172%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $18 +$1 +5%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $20 −$19 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $18 +$1 +7%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $35 +$1 +4%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $16 +$1 +6%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $15 −$3 -17%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2 +$2 +99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $146 −$129 -89%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $76 +$70 +93%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $334 −$259 -78%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $185 +$150 +81%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $483 −$315 -65%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $287 +$213 +74%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $2,017 +$130 +6%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $523 −$248 -48%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $944 −$396 -42%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $2,041 −$1,200 -59%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $3,000 −$1,505 -50%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $2,842 +$678 +24%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Korea Republic win on 202 Jun 12 $1 +$3 +282%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $2,565 +$275 +11%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $1,365 +$1,196 +88%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $765 −$270 -35%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $1,153 +$486 +42%
Bolivia vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $955 +$196 +20%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $946 +$6 +1%
Spread: Costa Rica (-2.5) Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $53 −$52 -99%
Will Iceland win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $368 −$303 -82%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $300 +$6 +2%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 10 $314 +$54 +17%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $1,610 −$1,307 -81%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 09 $5 −$4 -77%
Russia vs. Trinidad and Tobago: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $1,452 +$160 +11%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 09 $1,227 +$232 +19%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $794 +$427 +54%
Jordan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $560 +$232 +41%
Ecuador vs. Guatemala: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $484 +$80 +16%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $432 +$43 +10%
Greece vs. Italy: O/U 0.5 Jun 07 $401 +$33 +8%
Kosovo vs. Andorra: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $5 +$6 +118%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 07 $246 −$239 -97%
Argentina vs. Honduras: O/U 5.5 Jun 07 $72 −$62 -86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 32¢ $48 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 45¢ $70 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $69 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $11 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $12 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $8 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $8 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $4 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 6¢ $42 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 47¢ $344 5h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $342 17h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $137 18h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $139 24h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 36¢ $50 24h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 36¢ $19 27h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 55¢ $19 27h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $18 45h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $20 46h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $20 46h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 93¢ $18 47h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 39¢ $18 47h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $18 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 62¢ $18 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $17 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $17 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 94¢ $16 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 42¢ $13 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $3 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $2 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $15 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 333 history records