Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:35:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
31 0x310f…e361 crypto 666 markets active 0h ago coverage 335d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6,647 (+2%) realized +$6,646 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate97%642W / 21L
Whale WR99%big bets
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$622per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$756now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$33
7 days+$59
14 days−$544
30 days+$643
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% +$6,056
tech 4% +$416
finance 4% +$631
other 3% +$374
world 2% +$140
weather 2% −$77
sports 1% −$982
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +1.5% -8.1% 100% 0% -8.0%
≤30d 103 +0.7% -8.9% 98% 1% -8.8%
≤90d 502 -0.3% -9.8% 97% 1% -8.1%
all 663 -0.1% -9.7% 97% 1% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 1% -8.1%
10% -18.3% 0% -16.9%
15% -26.2% 0% -24.9%
20% -33.4% 0% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 99% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$72 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×5.36 per $1 lost it wins $5.36
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

335d coverage
Net worth$756
Realized+$6,646
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses642 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)99%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)663 / 666
History coverage335d
Avg bet$622
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 663 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 17? Down 99¢ 99¢ $278 $279 +$1 (+1%)
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 17? Down 99¢ 99¢ $247 $247 −$0 (-0%)
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 17? Down 98¢ 98¢ $231 $230 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $230 +$4 +2%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $135 +$2 +1%
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $103 +$1 +1%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $438 +$11 +2%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $434 +$8 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $118 +$2 +2%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $117 +$2 +1%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $118 +$2 +1%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $49 +$1 +2%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $96 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $480 +$10 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $343 +$5 +1%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $330 +$4 +1%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $178 +$2 +1%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $44 +$1 +2%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $68 +$1 +1%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $282 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $196 +$4 +2%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $488 +$12 +2%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $288 +$4 +2%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $109 +$6 +5%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $55 −$51 -93%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 June 1-7? Jun 08 $994 +$6 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 June 1-7? Jun 08 $788 +$12 +2%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $423 +$6 +1%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $230 +$4 +2%
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $158 +$2 +1%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $171 +$2 +1%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $144 +$6 +4%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $3,056 +$92 +3%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $500 +$29 +6%
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $603 +$14 +2%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $1,290 +$53 +4%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $1,278 +$63 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $436 +$3 +1%
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $1,039 −$1,037 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $1,680 +$74 +4%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $376 +$6 +2%
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $926 +$24 +3%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $294 +$6 +2%
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $340 +$5 +1%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $1,115 +$35 +3%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $826 +$19 +2%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $358 +$42 +12%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $781 +$11 +1%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $228 +$12 +5%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $325 +$5 +2%
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $192 +$3 +2%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $536 +$14 +3%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $312 +$16 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 99¢ $31 5m
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 99¢ $247 1h
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 98¢ $231 1h
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 99¢ $247 1h
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 99¢ $79 22h
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 98¢ $39 22h
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 99¢ $53 22h
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 99¢ $8 22h
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 97¢ $29 22h
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 99¢ $104 23h
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 98¢ $126 24h
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 99¢ $99 24h
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 97¢ $291 24h
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 98¢ $381 24h
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 99¢ $103 25h
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 98¢ $29 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 98¢ $30 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 98¢ $59 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 98¢ $30 26h
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 99¢ $79 47h
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 99¢ $20 47h
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 99¢ $50 47h
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 99¢ $50 2d
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 98¢ $47 2d
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 98¢ $48 2d
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 98¢ $39 2d
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 98¢ $49 2d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 10? BUY Down 99¢ $30 6d
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 10? BUY Down 98¢ $44 6d
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 10? BUY Down 99¢ $68 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $756.15 · official $755.78 (match) · 2598 history records