Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:57:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x310f…d5cb crypto 292 markets active 0h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$104 (-2%) realized −$104 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate77%226W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day24.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$8
14 days−$109
30 days−$162
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$162
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 112 +4.4% -5.5% 83% 43% -9.2%
≤30d 292 -1.6% -11.0% 77% 43% -11.9%
≤90d 292 -1.6% -11.0% 77% 43% -11.9%
all 292 -1.6% -11.0% 77% 43% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.0% 43% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -19.5% 24% -20.3%
15% -27.3% 17% -28.0%
20% -34.4% 12% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$17 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$104
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses226 / 66
Open positions0
Markets (closed)292 / 292
History coverage15d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day24.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 292 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $17 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$17 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $19 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $27 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$5 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $18 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $7 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $12 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$3 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $17 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $17 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $24 +$5 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $24 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $13 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $13 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $13 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $13 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $13 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $13 +$7 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $17 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $20 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $19 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $8 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $9 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $8 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $7 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $7 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $7 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $7 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 728 history records