Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:24:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
31 0x3112…de6a sports 94 markets active 2h ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$673 (-6%) realized −$673 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate75%70W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$57est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$7
14 days+$7
30 days−$113
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$487
other 9% −$234
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +10.8% +0.2% 100% 100% +0.2%
≤30d 39 +3.5% -6.4% 79% 62% -11.1%
≤90d 82 -1.6% -11.0% 77% 61% -15.3%
all 93 -3.8% -13.0% 75% 60% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 60% -15.4%
10% -21.3% 19% -23.5%
15% -28.9% 4% -30.9%
20% -35.9% 1% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$86 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized−$673
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses70 / 23
Est. fees paid−$57
Open positions1
Markets (closed)93 / 94
History coverage121d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 Over 90¢ 90¢ $73 $73 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $66 +$7 +11%
HSBC Championships: Qinwen Zheng vs Jaqueline Cristian Jun 08 $39 −$39 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $31 +$8 +26%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $204 −$204 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $165 +$40 +24%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $126 +$38 +30%
Set Handicap: Tiafoe (-2.5) vs Arnaldi (+2.5) Jun 01 $108 +$18 +17%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Zachary Svajda Jun 01 $95 +$12 +13%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev May 31 $73 +$22 +30%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Jil Teichmann May 31 $66 +$7 +10%
Roland Garros ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Moise Kouame May 28 $40 −$40 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Yibing Wu May 28 $41 −$1 -2%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $33 +$8 +23%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5 May 27 $36 −$2 -6%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Dino Prizmic May 27 $650 −$615 -94%
Roland Garros ATP: Mariano Navone vs Jakub Mensik May 27 $599 +$51 +9%
Roland Garros ATP: Nuno Borges vs Miomir Kecmanovic May 27 $393 +$205 +52%
Roland Garros ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Marco Trungelliti May 27 $352 +$42 +12%
Roland Garros ATP: Alexander Bublik vs Jan-Lennard Struff May 26 $357 −$5 -1%
Roland Garros ATP: Cristian Garin vs Learner Tien May 26 $355 +$2 +0%
Roland Garros ATP: Alexandre Muller vs Stefanos Tsitsipas May 26 $304 +$52 +17%
Roland Garros ATP: Marin Cilic vs Moise Kouame May 26 $509 +$34 +7%
Roland Garros WTA: Claire Liu vs Moyuka Uchijima May 26 $240 +$29 +12%
Roland Garros ATP: Adam Walton vs Daniil Medvedev May 26 $239 +$2 +1%
Roland Garros ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Gael Monfils May 25 $174 +$65 +38%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Roman Safiullin May 25 $266 +$11 +4%
Roland Garros ATP: Ignacio Buse vs Andrey Rublev May 25 $129 +$34 +26%
Roland Garros ATP: Stan Wawrinka vs Jesper de Jong May 25 $110 +$19 +17%
Roland Garros ATP: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Brandon Nakashima May 25 $92 +$18 +20%
Roland Garros ATP: Pablo Carreno Busta vs Jiri Lehecka May 25 $41 $0 -0%
Roland Garros ATP: Alexander Shevchenko vs Alex Michelsen May 25 $83 +$9 +11%
Roland Garros ATP: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Novak Djokovic May 24 $124 +$17 +14%
Roland Garros ATP: Hamad Medjedovic vs Yannick Hanfmann May 24 $60 +$6 +11%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Luka Pavlovic May 24 $53 +$7 +13%
Roland Garros ATP: Federico Cina vs Reilly Opelka May 24 $35 +$17 +48%
Portland Fire vs. Toronto Tempo May 23 $32 +$4 +12%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 23 $30 +$1 +5%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $27 +$4 +13%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Chicago Sky May 23 $23 +$3 +14%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Shuai Zhang vs Emma Navarro May 21 $56 −$56 -99%
Hamburg European Open: Tommy Paul vs Daniel Altmaier May 21 $50 +$6 +12%
Hamburg European Open: Ignacio Buse vs Ugo Humbert May 21 $45 +$5 +12%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Suzan Lamens May 21 $40 +$5 +12%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $28 +$12 +43%
Will Freiburg win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? May 20 $21 +$7 +33%
Istanbul: Maria Timofeeva vs Francesca Jones May 08 $121 −$120 -99%
Unicaja vs. AEK May 07 $107 +$14 +13%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Tomas Machac May 07 $119 +$11 +9%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Clara Tauson vs Oleksandra Oliynykova May 07 $88 +$8 +9%
Istanbul: Carole Monnet vs Francesca Jones May 07 $84 +$4 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $73 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 90¢ $66 21h
HSBC Championships: Qinwen Zheng vs Jaqueline Cristian BUY Qinwen Zheng 73¢ $39 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev SELL Alexander Zverev 100¢ $39 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 79¢ $31 14d
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider BUY Aryna Sabalenka 90¢ $204 18d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca SELL Jakub Mensik 100¢ $204 19d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca BUY Jakub Mensik 80¢ $165 19d
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev SELL Alexander Zverev 100¢ $165 19d
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 76¢ $126 20d
Set Handicap: Tiafoe (-2.5) vs Arnaldi (+2.5) SELL Arnaldi 99¢ $126 20d
Set Handicap: Tiafoe (-2.5) vs Arnaldi (+2.5) BUY Arnaldi 84¢ $108 20d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Zachary Svajda SELL Flavio Cobolli 100¢ $108 20d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Zachary Svajda BUY Flavio Cobolli 88¢ $95 21d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev SELL Jakub Mensik 100¢ $95 21d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev BUY Jakub Mensik 76¢ $73 21d
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Jil Teichmann SELL Mirra Andreeva 100¢ $73 21d
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Jil Teichmann BUY Mirra Andreeva 90¢ $66 21d
Roland Garros ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Moise Kouame BUY Adolfo Vallejo 76¢ $40 25d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Yibing Wu SELL Flavio Cobolli 78¢ $40 25d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Yibing Wu BUY Flavio Cobolli 79¢ $41 25d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $41 25d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? BUY Yes 81¢ $33 25d
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 84¢ $34 25d
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 89¢ $36 25d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Dino Prizmic SELL Dino Prizmic 5¢ $36 25d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Dino Prizmic BUY Dino Prizmic 88¢ $650 25d
Roland Garros ATP: Mariano Navone vs Jakub Mensik SELL Jakub Mensik 100¢ $650 25d
Roland Garros ATP: Mariano Navone vs Jakub Mensik BUY Jakub Mensik 92¢ $599 25d
Roland Garros ATP: Nuno Borges vs Miomir Kecmanovic SELL Nuno Borges 100¢ $598 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.59 · official $72.59 (match) · 211 history records