Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:29:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x3117…3c7c politics 71 markets active 1h ago coverage 169d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$23 (-6%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate62%44W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$7
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 36% −$10
other 27% −$14
world 20% +$9
tech 8% −$7
crypto 4% +$4
economics 4% −$9
culture 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +3.9% -6.0% 63% 20% -6.6%
≤30d 35 +3.9% -6.0% 63% 20% -6.6%
≤90d 35 +3.9% -6.0% 63% 20% -6.6%
all 71 -6.3% -15.3% 62% 21% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 21% -15.8%
10% -23.4% 14% -23.9%
15% -30.8% 11% -31.3%
20% -37.6% 10% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses44 / 27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)71 / 71
History coverage169d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 71 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -56%
US x Denmark Military clash before 2027? Jun 15 $3 $0 -0%
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Jun 15 $5 −$1 -21%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $5 $0 -9%
Negative GDP growth in 2026? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -18%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden before 2027? Jun 15 $5 $0 -7%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 15 $5 $0 -5%
Musk out as Tesla CEO before 2027? Jun 15 $5 $0 -1%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? Jun 15 $5 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $5 $0 -0%
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Diddy before 2027? Jun 15 $5 $0 -2%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell before 2027? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027? Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +30%
Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +34%
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? Jun 15 $10 −$3 -26%
Will Larry Fink visit Venezuela by March 31, 2026? Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Trump out as President by March 31? Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Will Jamie Dimon visit Venezuela by March 31, 2026? Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by March 31? Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
US strike on Colombia by March 31? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +16%
Ukraine election called by March 31, 2026? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +19%
Israeli parliament dissolved by March 31? Jun 15 $5 +$3 +52%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 15 $5 +$3 +65%
Trump out as President before 2027? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? Jun 15 $25 −$1 -4%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will Elon cut the budget by at least 10% in 2025? Mar 02 $1 $0 +1%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Bill Clinton charged by January 31? Feb 01 $1 $0 +1%
Will Iranian officials visit the White House by January 31? Feb 01 $1 $0 +5%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Feb 01 $5 $0 +9%
Will Trump say "Fuck" or "Fucking" or "Fucked" in January? Feb 01 $5 +$1 +22%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Feb 01 $20 +$2 +8%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jan 27 $10 −$2 -17%
First to 5k: Gold or ETH? Jan 26 $10 +$4 +45%
Will Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect for Sweden by Feburary 1 Jan 23 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo announce his retirement in 2026? Jan 21 $1 $0 -40%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2026? Jan 21 $1 −$1 -66%
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? Jan 18 $5 $0 +4%
Trump approval Up or Down this week? Jan 17 $2 +$1 +64%
GPT ads by March 31? Jan 17 $2 +$3 +172%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes $1 1h
US x Denmark Military clash before 2027? SELL No 95¢ $3 1h
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele SELL Yes 18¢ $4 1h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 74¢ $5 1h
Negative GDP growth in 2026? SELL No 76¢ $4 1h
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $5 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $5 1h
Musk out as Tesla CEO before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $5 1h
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $5 1h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $5 1h
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $5 1h
Will Trump pardon Diddy before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $5 1h
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $5 1h
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $5 1h
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the SELL Yes 91¢ $5 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 1h
Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish SELL No 96¢ $5 1h
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 58¢ $5 1h
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027? SELL No 88¢ $5 1h
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $6 1h
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? SELL No 87¢ $6 1h
Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $7 1h
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? SELL No 57¢ $7 1h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $8 1h
Trump out as President before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $11 1h
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? SELL No 85¢ $24 1h
Xi Jinping out before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $10 1h
US government shutdown Saturday? SELL No $0 134d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 12¢ $8 139d
Will Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect for Sweden by Feburary 1 SELL Yes $0 143d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 301 history records