Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:19:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x311e…1d06 crypto 1038 markets active 1h ago coverage 220d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$111 (+1%) realized +$111 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate60%617W / 419L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$492
7 days−$517
14 days−$385
30 days−$109
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$66
other 1% +$1
sports 0% $0
economics 0% $0
politics 0% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -29.9% -36.6% 41% 41% -35.1%
≤30d 180 -6.4% -15.3% 52% 52% -11.4%
≤90d 590 -13.0% -21.2% 49% 47% -13.5%
all 1036 -1.3% -10.7% 60% 49% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 49% -10.2%
10% -19.3% 45% -18.8%
15% -27.1% 43% -26.6%
20% -34.2% 41% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$9 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

220d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$111
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses617 / 419
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1036 / 1038
History coverage220d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1036 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+23%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 13¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET Jun 17 $41 +$31 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET Jun 17 $17 −$16 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET Jun 16 $113 +$67 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET Jun 15 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Jun 15 $319 −$310 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET Jun 15 $138 −$135 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET Jun 15 $41 −$40 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET Jun 15 $13 +$12 +87%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET Jun 15 $206 +$124 +61%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET Jun 14 $67 −$65 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5PM ET Jun 14 $13 −$13 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11AM ET Jun 14 $31 +$25 +79%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5AM ET Jun 14 $36 +$26 +73%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 4AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET Jun 13 $175 +$107 +61%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11AM ET Jun 13 $154 −$150 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET Jun 13 $49 −$48 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9AM ET Jun 13 $31 −$30 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5AM ET Jun 13 $30 −$18 -59%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 2AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$11 +73%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 6PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET Jun 12 $15 +$11 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10AM ET Jun 12 $21 +$15 +73%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 8AM ET Jun 11 $13 +$11 +79%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 6PM ET Jun 11 $72 +$53 +73%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 4PM ET Jun 11 $14 −$14 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 5PM ET Jun 11 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12PM ET Jun 10 $14 +$12 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11AM ET Jun 10 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5PM ET Jun 10 $26 +$18 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12PM ET Jun 09 $41 +$34 +83%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 8AM ET Jun 09 $31 +$22 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1AM ET Jun 09 $13 −$13 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 7AM ET Jun 09 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6AM ET Jun 09 $15 +$11 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2AM ET Jun 09 $31 +$22 +70%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 6PM ET Jun 09 $12 +$10 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 9AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2AM ET Jun 08 $31 +$19 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1AM ET Jun 08 $12 +$12 +93%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 2PM ET Jun 07 $12 +$11 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $17 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $113 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $51 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $16 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 40h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $52 44h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $102 44h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $21 44h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $21 44h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $21 44h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $103 44h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $138 45h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $41 46h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $15 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $13 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $206 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $67 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $13 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 11AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $31 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 10AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $7 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $36 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 4AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $15 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $51 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $21 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $21 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $31 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.93 · official $1.93 (match) · 2314 history records