Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:46:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x3129…160b world 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 450d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate43%10W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 70% −$7
other 20% +$1
crypto 4% $0
politics 3% −$2
sports 2% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 33% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 10 -2.3% -11.6% 30% 0% -10.7%
≤90d 10 -2.3% -11.6% 30% 0% -10.7%
all 23 -4.4% -13.5% 43% 0% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 0% -10.8%
10% -21.8% 0% -19.3%
15% -29.3% 0% -27.1%
20% -36.3% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

450d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses10 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage450d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 19 $29 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $29 $0 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $29 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $96 +$4 +4%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $73 $0 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $59 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $36 −$10 -28%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 29 $34 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $38 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Dec 13 $2 $0 -1%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 27 $10 $0 +2%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? May 08 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin above $82,000 on April 18? Apr 19 $10 $0 +2%
Will Draymond Green win 2024-25 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? Apr 18 $10 $0 -1%
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 18 $2 $0 +4%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Apr 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 31 $5 +$1 +10%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Mar 27 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80000 and $82000 on Mar 28? Mar 26 $12 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 91¢ $29 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 91¢ $29 3h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $29 7h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $6 10h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $23 10h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $30 18h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 19h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 19h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $14 19h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $32 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $32 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $10 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $9 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $23 17d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $32 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $29 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $4 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $25 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $12 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $16 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 73¢ $1 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 73¢ $7 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 73¢ $20 18d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes $1 19d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes $1 19d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes $0 19d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $28 19d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $28 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 23¢ $2 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 81 history records