Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:08:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x3129…a336 crypto 486 markets active 1h ago coverage 27d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 27d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (111 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$12,262 (+8%) realized +$12,262 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate85%452W / 77L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$305per market
Trades / day110.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 27d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$2,071
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (111 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 116 -39.4% -45.2% 58% 4% -38.2%
≤30d 529 -5.2% -14.2% 85% 15% -13.1%
≤90d 529 -5.2% -14.2% 85% 15% -13.1%
all 529 -5.2% -14.2% 85% 15% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover110.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.2% 15% -13.1%
10% ← realistic here -22.4% 7% -21.5%
15% -29.9% 5% -29.0%
20% -36.8% 3% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$194 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$12,262
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses452 / 77
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)529 / 486
History coverage27d ⚠
Avg bet$305
Trades / day110.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 529 Trades
no open positions (70 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 20 $1,221 −$1,221 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 20 $183 −$183 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 20 $74 −$74 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 20 $934 −$934 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 20 $669 −$669 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 20 $244 −$244 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 20 $264 −$264 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 20 $19 −$19 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 20 $140 −$140 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 20 $701 −$701 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 20 $97 −$97 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 20 $22 −$22 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 20 $77 −$77 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 20 $1,386 −$1,386 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 20 $35 −$35 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 20 $32 −$32 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 20 $98 −$98 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 20 $899 −$899 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 20 $277 −$277 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 20 $24 −$24 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 20 $98 −$98 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 20 $23 −$23 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 20 $19 −$19 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 20 $32 −$32 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 20 $44 −$44 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 20 $424 −$424 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 20 $278 +$11 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 20 $250 −$248 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 20 $640 +$40 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 20 $786 +$33 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 20 $174 +$4 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $95 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $18 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $9 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $60 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $95 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $82 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $80 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $8 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $45 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $33 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $98 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $98 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $93 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $95 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $36 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $51 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $58 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $62 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $37 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $11 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $98 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $60 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $32 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $33 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $98 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $8 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $64 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $97 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.86 · official $0.00 · 3500 history records