Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:55:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x312a…66b8 sports 378 markets active 12h ago coverage 72d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 71d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,066 (-2%) realized −$2,140 · open +$74
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate35%132W / 243L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$292per market
Trades / day46.5pace
Fees−$1,174est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$469now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$256
7 days+$363
14 days+$86
30 days−$3,792
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$1,687
world 27% +$1,188
other 9% −$1,981
politics 3% −$752
crypto 2% −$86
culture 1% +$85
tech 0% +$75
finance 0% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +2.0% -7.7% 33% 22% -5.9%
≤30d 97 -0.6% -10.1% 33% 28% -19.8%
≤90d 375 -5.9% -14.8% 35% 30% -11.1%
all 375 -5.9% -14.8% 35% 30% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.8% 30% -11.1%
10% ← realistic here -23.0% 25% -19.6%
15% -30.4% 19% -27.4%
20% -37.3% 15% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -7% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$126 vs −$82 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$469
Realized−$2,140
Unrealized+$74
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses132 / 243
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$1,174
Open positions3
Markets (closed)375 / 378
History coverage72d ⚠
Avg bet$292
Trades / day46.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 375 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $213 $272 +$60 (+28%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $147 $146 −$1 (-1%)
Chud the Builder convicted of attempted murder? Yes 21¢ 30¢ $35 $51 +$15 (+44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 17 $12 +$1 +6%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 17 $80 −$23 -29%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $31 −$3 -9%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $32 −$4 -11%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $369 +$23 +6%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 17 $1,520 −$76 -5%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $151 −$20 -13%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $196 −$16 -8%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $390 −$143 -37%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $346 −$13 -4%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $142 +$18 +13%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $83 +$129 +156%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $466 −$51 -11%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 15 $65 −$51 -78%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 14 $40 −$20 -50%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $34 +$119 +352%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $32 −$15 -48%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $255 +$22 +9%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $310 −$13 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $579 +$177 +30%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 14 $92 −$35 -38%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 14 $11 −$1 -5%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag Jun 14 $70 −$31 -45%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 14 $23 −$9 -38%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $102 −$17 -17%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $28 +$13 +46%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $587 +$753 +128%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $573 +$215 +38%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 11 $440 −$211 -48%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $318 −$120 -38%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $209 +$78 +38%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $708 −$325 -46%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $175 −$28 -16%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $46 −$2 -5%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $608 +$56 +9%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $355 −$230 -65%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? Jun 11 $100 −$48 -48%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 10 $123 −$65 -53%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $189 +$63 +34%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $199 −$199 -100%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? Jun 09 $102 −$9 -9%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $590 −$172 -29%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-0 be the exact series outcome? Jun 09 $164 −$162 -99%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $112 +$195 +174%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $140 −$38 -27%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $222 +$73 +33%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $64 +$75 +116%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 06 $65 −$17 -26%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 05 $225 −$109 -48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL illwill 13¢ $13 11h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 12¢ $11 11h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 12¢ $1 11h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 47¢ $56 11h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 53¢ $9 12h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 53¢ $1 12h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 53¢ $1 12h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 7¢ $28 12h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 5¢ $29 12h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $187 14h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 46¢ $230 23h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 47¢ $235 23h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 46¢ $276 24h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 24h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 24h
Chud the Builder convicted of attempted murder? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 27h
Chud the Builder convicted of attempted murder? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 27h
Chud the Builder convicted of attempted murder? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 27h
Chud the Builder convicted of attempted murder? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 27h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 56¢ $224 27h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 58¢ $58 27h
Chud the Builder convicted of attempted murder? BUY Yes 19¢ $19 27h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $131 27h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $180 27h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 62¢ $50 27h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 48¢ $384 29h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 69¢ $69 32h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 11¢ $37 32h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 13¢ $7 32h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 11¢ $11 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $469.26 · official $445.94 · 3500 history records