Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:09:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

31
0x312a…5dbc
crypto · 39 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$18 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$17 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$45
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses16 / 22
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage3d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day60.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 1 History 38 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days−$17
14 days−$17
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Over 69¢ 68¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Yes 60¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$11 +207%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $7 +$3 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $7 +$7 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$4 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +153%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $22 −$22 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$2 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 09 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 09 $7 +$9 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 09 $6 +$4 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 09 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 09 $12 −$4 -35%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $24 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 09 $8 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 09 $13 +$6 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$3 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 09 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 09 $4 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 09 $3 +$6 +176%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 09 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 09 $6 +$14 +230%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$2 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 09 $9 −$6 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 09 $12 +$16 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +58%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 09 $9 −$4 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 09 $8 +$4 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 09 $6 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 09 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 09 $8 +$5 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 09 $1 +$10 +945%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 72% +$6
sports 14% $0
other 14% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 2h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 60¢ $22 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +14.2% +3.3% 42% 42% -15.8%
≤30d 38 +14.2% +3.3% 42% 42% -15.8%
≤90d 38 +14.2% +3.3% 42% 42% -15.8%
all 38 +14.2% +3.3% 42% 42% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover60.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.3% 42% -15.8%
10% ← realistic here -6.6% 42% -23.9%
15% -15.6% 39% -31.2%
20% -23.9% 34% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.12 · official $45.12 (match) · 205 history records