Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T15:25:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

31
0x312d…6814
sports · 1103 markets active 1h ago
2.0score
+$14,623 +8%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2,362 · open +$1,346
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Net worth$5,300
Realized+$2,362
Unrealized+$1,346
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses977 / 112
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Est. fees paid−$118
Open positions25
Markets (closed)1089 / 1103
History coverage83d
Avg bet$158
Trades / day28.3
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit83%
Chart Positions 25 History 1089 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$95
7 days+$95
14 days+$95
30 days+$193
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? No 68¢ 100¢ $1,569 $2,289 +$720 (+46%)
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? No 51¢ 100¢ $660 $1,290 +$630 (+95%)
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? No 94¢ 98¢ $334 $347 +$13 (+4%)
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? No 30¢ 30¢ $339 $334 −$5 (-2%)
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's US Open? No 79¢ 94¢ $200 $240 +$40 (+20%)
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? No 88¢ 90¢ $171 $176 +$5 (+3%)
Will Iga Świątek be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? No 68¢ 91¢ $90 $120 +$30 (+34%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? No 95¢ 98¢ $109 $112 +$3 (+3%)
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? No 73¢ 84¢ $86 $100 +$14 (+16%)
Will Amanda Anisimova be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? No 82¢ 94¢ $86 $99 +$13 (+15%)
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 93¢ 100¢ $42 $45 +$3 (+8%)
Will Kimi Antonelli achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? No 55¢ 94¢ $20 $34 +$14 (+71%)
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Himeno Sakatsume vs Alicia Dudeney Himeno Sakatsume 43¢ 78¢ $10 $18 +$8 (+80%)
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No 75¢ 54¢ $23 $17 −$7 (-28%)
Will the Democrats win the Iowa governor race in 2026? No 59¢ 38¢ $25 $16 −$9 (-36%)
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? No 76¢ 66¢ $16 $14 −$2 (-13%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 74¢ 99¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+34%)
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? No 71¢ 59¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? No 25¢ 28¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+15%)
Will the Democrats win the Michigan governor race in 2026? No 30¢ 17¢ $13 $8 −$6 (-43%)
Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026? No 25¢ 16¢ $8 $5 −$3 (-39%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? No 31¢ 34¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+8%)
Will Lewis Hamilton achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? No 64¢ $27 $2 −$24 (-92%)
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? No 28¢ $94 $2 −$92 (-98%)
Will the Democrats win the New Jersey Senate race in 2026? No 10¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $202 +$115 +57%
Will Racing 92 win? Jun 14 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $88 +$12 +13%
Will Lithuania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $29 +$14 +50%
Will Norway be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $45 +$10 +22%
Will Malta be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $86 +$41 +47%
Will France win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 17 $149 +$15 +10%
Will Germany be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $129 +$74 +57%
Will Italy be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $91 −$66 -73%
Will Norway be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $63 +$11 +18%
Will Serbia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Score May 15 $48 −$48 -100%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Anytime Goalscorer May 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 15 $12 +$279 +2283%
Cagliari: Lorenzo Sonego vs Mattia Bellucci May 15 $2 +$3 +119%
Will Mumbai Indians win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 15 $10 +$81 +844%
Bryan Mbeumo: Anytime Goalscorer Apr 28 $91 +$40 +44%
Kyoto Hannaryz vs. Osaka Evessa Apr 26 $11 +$10 +93%
LoL: Cloud9 vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 1 Winner Apr 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Munster win? Apr 25 $2 −$2 -100%
T20 Series South Africa vs. India, Women: South Africa vs India Apr 25 $55 +$55 +100%
Pakistan Super League: Lahore Qalandars vs Peshawar Zalmi Apr 25 $4 +$6 +129%
Will Sale Sharks win? Apr 25 $22 −$22 -100%
Kevin Stoger: Anytime Goalscorer Apr 25 $5 +$3 +57%
Will Gateshead FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $30 +$11 +38%
ICC Cricket World Cup League Two: Nepal vs United Arab Emirates Apr 25 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Reds win? Apr 25 $50 +$21 +42%
Madrid Open: Cameron Norrie vs Tomas Machac Apr 25 $18 −$18 -100%
Monaco vs. Barcelona Apr 25 $12 +$11 +97%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 63°F or below on April 24? Apr 24 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on Apri Apr 24 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on Apri Apr 24 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 74-75°F on April 24 Apr 24 $50 $0 +0%
Madrid Open: Ben Shelton vs Dino Prizmic Apr 24 $15 +$27 +180%
Guangzhou Loong Lions vs. Shenzhen Leopards Apr 24 $175 +$109 +62%
Madrid Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Cristina Bucsa Apr 24 $116 −$116 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 72-73°F on April 24? Apr 24 $50 $0 +0%
Will Comunicaciones FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 52-53°F on Ap Apr 24 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 57°F or below on April 24? Apr 24 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on April 24 Apr 24 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on April 24 Apr 24 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 78,400 on April 24, 2AM ET? Apr 24 $85 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 2,375 on April 24, 2AM ET? Apr 24 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 78,000 on April 24, 2AM ET? Apr 24 $100 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 2,330 on April 24, 2AM ET? Apr 24 $21 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 78,800 on April 24, 2AM ET? Apr 24 $81 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 2,345 on April 24, 2AM ET? Apr 24 $95 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 77,200 on April 24, 2AM ET? Apr 24 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 58-59°F on April 24? Apr 24 $50 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 59% +$1,319
other 16% +$2,171
weather 13% −$94
politics 5% +$293
tech 4% +$11
crypto 3% +$7
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 18¢ $7 1h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 85¢ $54 1h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 84¢ $56 1h
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 88¢ $18 1h
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 84¢ $71 1h
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 84¢ $201 1h
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 29¢ $89 1h
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 84¢ $131 1h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 64¢ $10 1h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 62¢ $42 1h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 62¢ $18 1h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 62¢ $3 1h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 62¢ $6 1h
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 80¢ $161 1h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 63¢ $194 1h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 67¢ $7 1h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 68¢ $85 1h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 67¢ $7 1h
Will Kimi Antonelli achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Catalunya G BUY No 48¢ $1 1h
Will Kimi Antonelli achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Catalunya G BUY No 48¢ $10 1h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 67¢ $7 1h
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 75¢ $8 1h
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 74¢ $15 1h
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 74¢ $9 1h
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 70¢ $7 1h
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 60¢ $5 1h
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 60¢ $22 1h
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 49¢ $15 1h
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 55¢ $26 1h
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 54¢ $137 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -9.9% -18.5% 67% 67% +17.2%
≤30d 10 +10.0% -0.5% 80% 70% +9.5%
≤90d 1089 +7.0% -3.2% 90% 13% -8.3%
all 1089 +7.0% -3.2% 90% 13% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover28.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.2% 13% -8.3%
10% ← realistic here -12.5% 12% -17.1%
15% -20.9% 10% -25.1%
20% -28.7% 9% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,299.92 · official $5,310.27 (match) · 3500 history records