Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T03:08:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

31
0x312d…c7ff
politics · 130 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$28 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$28 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$12
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses12 / 117
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)129 / 130
History coverage108d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%
Chart Positions 1 History 129 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-0%)
Nets vs. Pistons Pistons 89¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Jazz vs. Bucks Jazz 22¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Clippers vs. Grizzlies Grizzlies 31¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Wizards vs. Warriors Wizards 14¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Heat vs. Cavaliers Cavaliers 58¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Suns vs. Magic Suns 47¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Raptors vs. Jazz Jazz 20¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Hornets vs. Trail Blazers Trail Blazers 42¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Pacers vs. Kings Pacers 42¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $15 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $9 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $16 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $13 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $174 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $93 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $234 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 01 $98 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $107 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $14 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 29 $90 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $72 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $198 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $82 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $174 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $172 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $179 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $140 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? May 22 $75 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $208 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $277 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $80 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $178 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 15 $70 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $353 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $92 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $179 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $97 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $158 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $180 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? May 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 05 $62 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $158 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $156 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 03 $154 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $72 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 01 $61 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 30 $78 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $68 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $160 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 26 $75 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $91 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $81 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 24 $82 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $159 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 24 $71 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 22 $84 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $90 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 21 $87 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $88 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 44% −$7
other 35% −$5
sports 9% −$15
crypto 3% $0
world 3% $0
tech 3% $0
economics 2% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $12 52m
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $15 3d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 4d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $9 5d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 6d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $16 6d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $16 7d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $13 8d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $13 8d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $11 9d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $11 10d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $9 10d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 11d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $14 12d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $14 12d
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $16 12d
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $16 13d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $12 13d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $12 13d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $14 14d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $14 15d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $90 15d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $90 16d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $72 16d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $72 17d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $95 18d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $95 19d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $82 19d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $82 20d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $76 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 24 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 119 +1.6% -8.1% 7% 3% -9.3%
all 129 -1.7% -11.1% 9% 5% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 5% -9.7%
10% -19.6% 4% -18.4%
15% -27.4% 3% -26.3%
20% -34.5% 3% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.99 · official $11.99 (match) · 387 history records