Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T14:26:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

31
0x312e…c604
crypto · 76 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$43 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$13 · open −$47
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$256
Realized−$13
Unrealized−$47
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses35 / 27
Open positions14
Markets (closed)62 / 76
History coverage119d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%
Chart Positions 14 History 62 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $160 by December 31, 2026? Yes 13¢ 16¢ $60 $72 +$12 (+19%)
Multipli.fi FDV above $20M one day after launch? Yes 79¢ 54¢ $60 $41 −$19 (-32%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 44¢ 28¢ $60 $38 −$22 (-37%)
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? Yes 25¢ 22¢ $18 $16 −$2 (-9%)
Will Solana reach $180 by December 31, 2026? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $14 $16 +$2 (+15%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Yes 30¢ 28¢ $17 $16 −$1 (-6%)
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $15 $11 −$4 (-25%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 25¢ 16¢ $14 $9 −$5 (-35%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Metamask FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-3%)
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? Yes 12¢ 8¢ $12 $8 −$4 (-35%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-17%)
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-25%)
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $3 $3 −$1 (-23%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on May 11? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 May 4-10? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on May 11? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 May 4-10? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Multipli.fi FDV above $800M one day after launch? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -86%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on May 11? May 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on May 11? May 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 May 4-10? May 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 May 4-10? May 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Metamask FDV above $300M one day after launch? May 08 $81 +$5 +6%
Multipli.fi FDV above $1B one day after launch? May 06 $3 −$1 -42%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? May 06 $12 +$1 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? May 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? May 06 $17 −$15 -91%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? May 06 $15 −$14 -92%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? May 06 $42 −$31 -75%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? May 06 $13 +$8 +60%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? May 05 $3 +$2 +49%
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? Apr 27 $26 +$3 +12%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 26 $13 −$2 -17%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on April 16? Apr 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,000 on April 16? Apr 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 on April 16? Apr 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on April 16? Apr 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on April 16? Apr 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on April 16? Apr 16 $2 +$3 +117%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April? Apr 15 $76 +$15 +20%
OneFootball FDV above $20M one day after launch? Apr 10 $59 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? Apr 08 $158 +$21 +13%
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? Apr 08 $73 +$12 +17%
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? Apr 05 $5 $0 +3%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Apr 05 $4 +$1 +21%
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026? Apr 05 $12 +$1 +9%
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? Apr 05 $59 +$3 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 05 $67 +$3 +4%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 02 $39 −$10 -25%
Pakistan x Afghanistan ceasefire by March 31? Apr 02 $82 −$20 -25%
Base FDV above $2B one day after launch? Mar 23 $38 +$1 +4%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 09 $1 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? Mar 09 $10 +$1 +5%
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 08 $9 $0 +2%
Probable FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 06 $3 +$1 +31%
idOS FDV above $20M one day after launch? Mar 06 $4 +$4 +100%
GPT-5.4 released by March 31? Mar 05 $10 $0 +3%
GPT-5.4 released by March 5? Mar 05 $11 +$4 +39%
GPT-5.4 released by March 9? Mar 05 $7 $0 +0%
Yellow FDV above $50M one day after launch? Mar 05 $27 +$9 +33%
Probable FDV above $50M one day after launch? Mar 05 $1 $0 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 1? Mar 02 $59 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 28? Feb 28 $14 +$7 +49%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $152 −$11 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 38% −$63
world 31% −$9
other 28% +$8
tech 2% +$6
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $8 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 1h
Multipli.fi FDV above $800M one day after launch? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 4d
Will Solana reach $180 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 5d
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? SELL Yes 18¢ $0 6d
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? SELL Yes 18¢ $11 6d
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? SELL Yes 13¢ $0 7d
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 7d
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 7d
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 7d
Will Solana reach $160 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 7d
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 8d
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 8d
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 8d
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 8d
Will Solana reach $160 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $14 8d
Will Solana reach $160 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $7 8d
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 8d
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 9d
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 9d
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 9d
Will Solana reach $180 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 10d
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 10d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 10d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $9 10d
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 10d
Will Solana reach $180 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 11d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $12 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -85.9% -87.2% 0% 0% -87.2%
≤30d 1 -85.9% -87.2% 0% 0% -87.2%
≤90d 35 -34.4% -40.6% 46% 23% -12.6%
all 62 -8.3% -17.0% 56% 32% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 32% -10.5%
10% -25.0% 23% -19.0%
15% -32.2% 19% -26.9%
20% -38.9% 13% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $256.02 · official $256.02 (match) · 553 history records