Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:49:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x312e…19b5 sports 22 markets active 10d ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1 (+4%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%7W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day27.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% +$6
other 35% −$5
crypto 13% −$3
world 9% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 22 +3.5% -6.4% 32% 32% -9.4%
≤90d 22 +3.5% -6.4% 32% 32% -9.4%
all 22 +3.5% -6.4% 32% 32% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.4% 32% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -15.3% 32% -18.1%
15% -23.5% 32% -26.0%
20% -31.0% 32% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +107% → late -100% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses7 / 15
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day27.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Iraq to score first vs. Norway? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +246%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +94%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +339%
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +227%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +339%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 15 $1 +$2 +232%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 10d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 10d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 10d
Iraq to score first vs. Norway? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 10d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $1 10d
Exact Score: France 1 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes $1 10d
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes $1 10d
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) BUY Senegal $1 10d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 10d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down $1 10d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $4 10d
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 10d
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 10d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $4 10d
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes $1 10d
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 10d
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) BUY New Zealand $1 10d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 10d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 41¢ $3 10d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $4 10d
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) SELL Egypt 12¢ $3 11d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 11d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 11d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 11d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 11d
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt $1 11d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 31 history records