trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 0% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 2 | -0.1% | -9.6% | 0% | 0% | -9.6% |
| ≤90d | 4 | +0.7% | -8.9% | 25% | 0% | -9.5% |
| all | 23 | +0.6% | -9.0% | 52% | 0% | -9.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.0% | 0% | -9.1% |
| 10% | -17.7% | 0% | -17.8% |
| 15% | -25.6% | 0% | -25.7% |
| 20% | -32.9% | 0% | -33.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | No | 91¢ | 91¢ | $34 | $34 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? | Jun 23 | $34 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | May 26 | $23 | $0 | -0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | May 24 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | May 24 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 17 | $1 | $0 | -2% |
| Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election | Jun 26 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel strike on Iran on June 19? | Jun 19 | $12 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after | Jun 18 | $11 | $0 | -2% |
| Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the | Jun 14 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? | Jun 13 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? | Jun 12 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 National League Championship? | Jun 09 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| MicroStrategy purchases >10000 BTC June 3-9? | Jun 08 | $11 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? | Jun 07 | $11 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be the first leader out in 2025? | Jun 06 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 French Open? | Jun 05 | $11 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Jun 04 | $11 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Anders Arborelius be the next pope? | May 10 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? | May 07 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? | Apr 18 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Ethereum above $2,000 on March 28? | Mar 29 | $13 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 21-28? | Mar 28 | $13 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? | Mar 22 | $13 | $0 | +0% |