Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:15:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

31
0x3131…a35d
crypto · 161 markets active 1h ago
1.5score
−$280 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$931 · open +$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$78
Realized−$931
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses102 / 58
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)160 / 161
History coverage10d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day46.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 1 History 160 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$487
14 days−$931
30 days−$931
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 46¢ 48¢ $74 $78 +$4 (+5%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Down 71¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Up 73¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Up 68¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Down 80¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Under 36¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Up 67¢ 0¢ $75 $0 −$75 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $75 $0 −$75 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $99 $0 −$99 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Down 34¢ 0¢ $75 $0 −$75 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Down 69¢ 0¢ $110 $0 −$110 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $71 −$70 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $204 −$27 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $180 +$31 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $103 +$13 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $102 +$26 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $281 −$14 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $206 +$18 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $309 +$3 +1%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $70 −$69 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $231 +$119 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $204 +$84 +41%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $101 +$14 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $101 +$6 +6%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $306 +$30 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $103 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $308 +$79 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $78 −$75 -96%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $101 −$12 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $102 +$19 +18%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $115 −$74 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 14 $78 −$71 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 14 $79 −$75 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 14 $75 −$63 -84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $49 +$16 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 14 $125 +$46 +37%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 14 $103 +$29 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $180 +$39 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $284 +$73 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $102 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $204 +$68 +33%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 +$6 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $62 +$41 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 13 $35 +$12 +34%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? Jun 13 $40 +$9 +23%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 13 $71 −$59 -84%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $35 +$9 +26%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $39 +$9 +22%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 −$15 -51%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $102 +$35 +35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $198 +$16 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 13 $103 +$59 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $128 +$30 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $102 +$35 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 93% −$223
sports 6% −$659
other 1% −$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 51¢ $71 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $65 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $77 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $75 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $78 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $75 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $118 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $93 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $79 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $80 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $129 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $102 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $249 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $101 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 15¢ $18 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $102 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $77 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $114 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $110 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $155 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $99 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 140 -9.0% -17.6% 64% 51% -11.4%
≤30d 160 -10.6% -19.2% 64% 51% -13.1%
≤90d 160 -10.6% -19.2% 64% 51% -13.1%
all 160 -10.6% -19.2% 64% 51% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover46.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.2% 51% -13.1%
10% ← realistic here -26.9% 33% -21.5%
15% -34.0% 16% -29.0%
20% -40.4% 9% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.02 · official $78.02 (match) · 476 history records