Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:24:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x3132…cab6 crypto 278 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$20 (-1%) realized −$19 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate83%222W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day26.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$203now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$52
14 days−$49
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 31% +$3
finance 28% +$1
sports 17% −$41
tech 16% +$11
other 8% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 100 -4.2% -13.3% 76% 9% -12.7%
≤30d 268 -3.2% -12.5% 83% 12% -10.3%
≤90d 268 -3.2% -12.5% 83% 12% -10.3%
all 268 -3.2% -12.5% 83% 12% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.5% 12% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -20.8% 6% -18.9%
15% -28.5% 1% -26.7%
20% -35.5% 1% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$203
Realized−$19
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses222 / 46
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions10
Markets (closed)268 / 278
History coverage24d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day26.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 268 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $285 on June 17? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on June 17? No 100¢ 99¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on June 17? No 99¢ 98¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $235 on June 17? Yes 99¢ 96¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-3%)
Will Meta (META) close above $570 on June 17? Yes 99¢ 95¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $360 on June 17? Yes 99¢ 95¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-4%)
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $420 on June 17? No 99¢ 96¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $280 on June 16? Jun 16 $35 $0 +1%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $370 on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will Meta (META) close above $560 on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $380 on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $350 on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $235 on June 16? Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $200 on June 16? Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $775 on June 16? Jun 16 $33 $0 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on June 15? Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on June 15? Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $720 on June 15? Jun 15 $32 +$1 +2%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $365 on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +238%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $8 +$1 +7%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $6 −$5 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 $0 -5%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $3 $0 -0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $17 +$2 +9%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $10 −$1 -12%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $14 −$4 -28%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $6 −$4 -64%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $30 $0 +1%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $10 $0 -2%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 -7%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 -3%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $50 +$1 +2%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $6 $0 +6%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 +$1 +31%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $13 +$1 +4%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -60%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $5 +$1 +12%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $8 +$1 +8%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $5 $0 -2%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$1 -14%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $25 +$1 +4%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $10 +$1 +9%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $7 −$2 -23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $12 45m
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $285 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 47m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 6h
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $235 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $11 6h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $20 6h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $10 6h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $20 6h
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $285 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $18 7h
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $360 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $8 7h
Will Meta (META) close above $570 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 7h
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $420 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $5 7h
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $370 on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 32h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $5 39h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $775 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $33 39h
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $235 on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 39h
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $380 on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 39h
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $280 on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 39h
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $280 on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 39h
Will Meta (META) close above $560 on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 39h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $200 on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 39h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $200 on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 39h
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $350 on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 39h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 39h
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $280 on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $6 39h
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $280 on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $9 41h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $30 41h
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $365 on June 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 41h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $10 41h
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $365 on June 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 41h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 15? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $202.83 · official $202.83 (match) · 789 history records