Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:09:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x3137…9601 crypto 964 markets active 0h ago coverage 41d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$682 (+2%) realized +$761 · open −$79
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate95%913W / 50L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day38.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$139now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$163
7 days+$386
14 days+$294
30 days+$551
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$499
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 142 +2.0% -7.7% 96% 2% -6.0%
≤30d 877 +0.6% -9.0% 95% 4% -8.0%
≤90d 963 +0.7% -8.9% 95% 5% -8.0%
all 963 +0.7% -8.9% 95% 5% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.9% 5% -8.0%
10% ← realistic here -17.6% 0% -16.8%
15% -25.6% 0% -24.8%
20% -32.9% 0% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$28 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$139
Realized+$761
Unrealized−$79
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses913 / 50
Open positions1
Markets (closed)963 / 964
History coverage41d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day38.6
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 963 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Down 90¢ 57¢ $218 $139 −$79 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $107 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $186 +$16 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $247 +$12 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $95 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $69 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $88 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $93 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $155 +$7 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $112 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $49 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $152 +$16 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $83 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $38 +$3 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $79 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $143 +$12 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $213 +$9 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $81 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $43 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $123 +$10 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $80 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $170 +$6 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $183 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $70 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $102 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $158 +$6 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $204 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $76 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $52 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $127 +$10 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $75 +$8 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $135 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $118 +$8 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $159 +$12 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $98 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $165 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $158 +$11 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $192 +$7 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $75 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $162 +$13 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $132 +$10 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $162 +$11 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $129 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $91 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $34 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $17 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $90 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $17 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $24 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $9 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $39 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $89 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $160 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $87 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $95 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $45 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $23 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $65 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $23 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $43 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $0 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $88 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $67 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $41 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $71 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $33 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $16 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $139.17 · official $139.17 (match) · 2540 history records