Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:57:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
31 0x313b…7959 other 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$50 (+3%) realized +$50 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%15W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$189
7 days+$166
14 days+$162
30 days+$162
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$293
other 48% −$131
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -3.8% -13.0% 44% 44% +2.8%
≤30d 35 +8.8% -1.6% 43% 43% -1.4%
≤90d 35 +8.8% -1.6% 43% 43% -1.4%
all 35 +8.8% -1.6% 43% 43% -1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.6% 43% -1.4%
10% -11.0% 43% -10.8%
15% -19.6% 40% -19.4%
20% -27.5% 34% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$28 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$50
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses15 / 20
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage12d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $204 +$208 +102%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $103 −$33 -32%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 23 $102 −$44 -43%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $100 +$59 +59%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -97%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $5 +$8 +165%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $203 −$43 -21%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$107 +105%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $55 +$32 +58%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 −$43 -43%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $61 −$54 -89%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $40 +$22 +55%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $75 +$17 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$24 +48%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $13 +$46 +344%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $106 −$92 -88%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $18 −$13 -71%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $58 −$39 -68%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 +$27 +89%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$27 +262%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $9 +$14 +157%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $23 −$13 -58%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $20 +$51 +250%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $31 +$48 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $91 +$40 +44%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $204 56m
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $102 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 5¢ $69 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 36¢ $208 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 2h
Spread: England (-2.5) SELL England 23¢ $58 2h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 39¢ $102 3h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $159 4h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 62¢ $100 5h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 5d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 5d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 37¢ $5 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 43¢ $159 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $203 5d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $102 6d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $87 6d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 84¢ $50 6d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 32¢ $58 6d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 6¢ $7 6d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 6d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 6d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $101 6d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $61 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $40 6d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $92 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $75 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $75 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 67 history records