Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T00:28:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

31
0x313c…a48a
crypto · 8 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$105 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$105 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$105
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day14.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%
Chart Positions 0 History 8 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$105
7 days−$105
14 days−$105
30 days−$105
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $205 $0 −$205 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 12 $45 +$167 +374%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 12 $291 −$262 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 12 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $103 +$46 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 12 $216 −$205 -95%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $153 +$252 +165%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 85% −$358
other 15% +$252
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Down 4¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $83 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $149 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $405 20h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $153 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +24.3% +12.5% 50% 38% -19.0%
≤30d 8 +24.3% +12.5% 50% 38% -19.0%
≤90d 8 +24.3% +12.5% 50% 38% -19.0%
all 8 +24.3% +12.5% 50% 38% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover14.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.5% 38% -19.0%
10% +1.7% 38% -26.8%
15% -8.1% 38% -33.9%
20% -17.1% 25% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 18 history records