Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:47:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x313d…4b1a crypto 47 markets active 6h ago coverage 1214d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6,472 (-2%) realized −$6,472 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate36%16W / 29L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6,266per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$1,043est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10,112
7 days+$7,530
14 days−$13,723
30 days−$13,723
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% +$50,854
other 22% +$4,604
world 13% −$38,435
crypto 12% −$19,270
politics 2% −$5,366
tech 1% +$431
finance 1% −$2,000
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-37.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -24.8% -32.0% 50% 50% +20.5%
≤30d 10 -38.6% -44.4% 30% 30% -21.1%
≤90d 10 -38.6% -44.4% 30% 30% -21.1%
all 45 -30.4% -37.0% 36% 33% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -37.0% 33% -12.4%
10% ← realistic here -43.1% 31% -20.8%
15% -48.6% 29% -28.4%
20% -53.6% 27% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$9,200) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -38% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
16.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5,766 vs −$3,498 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1214d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6,472
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses16 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$1,043
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 47
History coverage1214d
Avg bet$6,266
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions (23 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $20,086 +$10,112 +50%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2,641 −$2,582 -98%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $5,419 −$492 -9%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $8,901 −$8,749 -98%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $10,509 +$3,810 +36%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10,417 −$10,254 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9,344 −$9,200 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $19,322 +$10,980 +57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3,878 −$3,796 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $17,777 −$3,552 -20%
Men's Semifinals - Canada vs. Finland Feb 21 $33,292 +$31,689 +95%
Women's Final - USA vs. Canada Feb 20 $19,520 +$12,282 +63%
Utah Utes vs. West Virginia Mountaineers Feb 19 $18,317 +$3,464 +19%
Men's Quarterfinals - USA vs. Sweden Feb 19 $11,549 +$6,733 +58%
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? Feb 18 $6,117 −$6,116 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 18 $31,803 −$31,802 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Feb 18 $517 −$517 -100%
Pacers vs. Wizards Feb 18 $2,000 −$100 -5%
Rockets vs. Hornets Feb 18 $2,000 −$68 -3%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 18 $4,236 +$431 +10%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Feb 18 $10,000 −$909 -9%
Spread: North Carolina State Wolfpack (-6.5) Feb 17 $919 −$919 -100%
Men's Round of 16 - Czechia vs. Denmark Feb 17 $7,412 +$2,204 +30%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 17? Feb 17 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Astralis (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage Feb 17 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Feb 17 $600 +$443 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Feb 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Feb 16 $2,289 −$2,282 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Feb 16 $3,923 +$2,238 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Feb 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Feb 16 $1,000 −$990 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Feb 16 $300 +$384 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Feb 16 $1,100 +$1,073 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Feb 16 $600 −$595 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Feb 16 $400 −$394 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Feb 16 $800 −$100 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Feb 16 $400 +$351 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Feb 16 $510 −$506 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Feb 11 $6,761 −$6,655 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 11? Feb 11 $1,250 −$1,250 -100%
BYU Cougars vs. Baylor Bears Feb 11 $4,891 +$3,119 +64%
Arizona Wildcats vs. Kansas Jayhawks Feb 10 $1,947 +$2,945 +151%
Will a Republican win Virginia Presidential Election? Nov 06 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? Jul 23 $5,315 −$5,315 -100%
Boxing: Jake Paul vs. Tommy Fury Jul 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $18,565 5h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $5,868 12h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $738 14h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $2,386 16h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 23¢ $596 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 24¢ $1,023 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 24¢ $1,023 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $2,641 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $137 3d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2,688 3d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2,817 3d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $7,238 3d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $7,205 3d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-1.5) AND Spread: Spain (-2 BUY 6¢ $1,543 7d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $51 7d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $1,536 7d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $3,340 7d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $8,901 7d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $260 7d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $48 7d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 7d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $15 7d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $338 7d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 7d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $106 7d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $610 7d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 7d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $37 7d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $15 7d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 858 history records