Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:37:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

31 0x313f…46b6 other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 294d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$12 (+1%) realized −$39 · open +$51

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -55% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -59% what you keep after slip

Net edge-59%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%1W / 2L

Drawdown75%max

Avg bet$206per market

Trades / day0.0pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$751now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 294d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-59.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	no closed markets
all	3	-55.0%	-59.3%	33%	33%	+6.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-59.3%	33%	+6.1%
10%	-63.2%	33%	-4.0%
15%	-66.8%	0%	-13.3%
20%	-70.0%	0%	-21.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI — too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -55% · $-wt +17% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$35 vs −$7 · ×4.65 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.33 per $1 lost it wins $2.33

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

294d coverage

Net worth$751

Realized−$39

Unrealized+$51

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses1 / 2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage294d

Avg bet$206

Trades / day0.0

Drawdown75%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	66¢	70¢	$700	$751	+$51 (+7%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Alexander Isak sign with a new club during the transfer window?	Sep 24	$100	+$35	+35%
Will Antony sign with a new club during the transfer window?	Aug 31	$5	−$5	-100%
Will no leader be out in 2025?	Aug 31	$10	−$10	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	66¢	$505	1h
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	65¢	$202	1h
Will Antony sign with a new club during the transfer window?	BUY No	30¢	$5	291d
Will no leader be out in 2025?	BUY Yes	53¢	$10	291d
Will Alexander Isak sign with a new club during the transfer window?	BUY Yes	74¢	$100	294d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $751.01 · official $751.01 (match) · 6 history records