Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T18:07:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x3140…5932 crypto 396 markets active 0h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$12 (-1%) realized −$11 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate63%250W / 145L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day19.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$2
14 days−$5
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 150 +1.3% -8.3% 58% 43% -9.0%
≤30d 392 -3.6% -12.8% 63% 33% -12.3%
≤90d 395 -3.8% -13.0% 63% 33% -12.3%
all 395 -3.8% -13.0% 63% 33% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 33% -12.3%
10% -21.3% 22% -20.7%
15% -28.9% 15% -28.4%
20% -35.9% 9% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses250 / 145
Open positions1
Markets (closed)395 / 396
History coverage31d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day19.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 395 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 91 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $1.73 · 833 history records