Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:06:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
31 0x3143…5c17 crypto 415 markets active 0h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$620 (+3%) realized +$617 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate51%212W / 202L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$127now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$186
7 days+$186
14 days+$186
30 days+$186
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$142
other 1% −$1
politics 0% $0
economics 0% −$1
finance 0% −$1
world 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +11.7% +1.1% 46% 46% +12.0%
≤30d 13 +11.7% +1.1% 46% 46% +12.0%
≤90d 353 -12.2% -20.6% 46% 41% -9.5%
all 414 -1.5% -10.9% 51% 43% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 43% -8.9%
10% -19.4% 37% -17.6%
15% -27.2% 32% -25.6%
20% -34.3% 25% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +63% → late -66% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$43 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$127
Realized+$617
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses212 / 202
Open positions1
Markets (closed)414 / 415
History coverage128d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 414 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Down 43¢ 56¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 19 $21 +$30 +147%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 19 $214 +$54 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 19 $111 −$10 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 19 $177 +$35 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 19 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 19 $53 +$183 +347%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 19 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 19 $41 −$9 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 19 $47 −$7 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 19 $51 +$21 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 19 $97 −$95 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 19 $31 +$59 +188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Apr 26 $210 −$210 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Apr 26 $90 −$85 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Apr 26 $83 −$12 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Apr 26 $96 +$50 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Apr 26 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Apr 26 $87 +$172 +197%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Apr 26 $100 −$95 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Apr 26 $30 −$28 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Apr 10 $22 −$21 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Apr 10 $18 +$5 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Apr 10 $12 +$6 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Apr 10 $9 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Apr 10 $8 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Apr 10 $300 −$286 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Apr 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Apr 10 $100 −$98 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Apr 10 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 10 $30 +$17 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Apr 10 $30 +$28 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Apr 10 $20 +$16 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Apr 10 $177 +$103 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Apr 10 $100 −$94 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Apr 10 $140 −$137 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Apr 10 $10 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Apr 10 $175 −$170 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Apr 10 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Apr 10 $150 +$31 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Apr 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Apr 09 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Apr 09 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Apr 09 $145 −$145 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Apr 09 $85 −$85 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Apr 09 $297 +$61 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Apr 09 $128 +$61 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Apr 09 $25 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $101 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $102 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $101 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $25 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $26 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $26 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $52 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $26 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $26 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $26 58m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $126.80 · official $129.13 · 1414 history records