Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:31:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
31 0x3144…cc17 crypto 445 markets active 2h ago coverage 195d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$607 (+4%) realized +$641 · open −$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate57%233W / 174L
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$49est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$39
7 days−$544
14 days−$343
30 days−$204
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% +$604
sports 10% +$321
other 5% −$608
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +1.9% -7.8% 40% 36% -32.7%
≤30d 56 -3.1% -12.3% 38% 36% -9.4%
≤90d 112 -10.1% -18.6% 39% 38% -3.8%
all 407 +3.4% -6.5% 57% 47% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 47% -6.0%
10% -15.4% 39% -15.0%
15% -23.6% 32% -23.2%
20% -31.1% 26% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$24 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

195d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized+$641
Unrealized−$34
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses233 / 174
Est. fees paid−$49
Open positions2
Markets (closed)407 / 445
History coverage195d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 407 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+2%)
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 0 Austria? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 1.5 AND Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 AND DR C Jun 27 $60 −$12 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 26 $180 +$51 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 25 $20 −$16 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 25 $159 −$139 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 25 $98 +$61 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$40 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 25 $287 −$167 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 25 $21 −$19 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 25 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$22 +214%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 25 $273 +$47 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 25 $198 −$180 -91%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 24 $207 +$39 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 24 $155 +$70 +45%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $299 −$290 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 24 $19 +$17 +89%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 AND W Jun 21 $5 +$38 +731%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $130 +$131 +100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $147 +$84 +57%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $91 +$61 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$15 +280%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $9 +$16 +177%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -94%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $722 −$3 -0%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 08 $441 +$424 +96%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 07 $10 $0 -4%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $10 $0 -3%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $10 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 07 $400 −$391 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 07 $31 −$20 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 07 $223 +$212 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 07 $100 +$98 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 07 $360 −$333 -93%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $20 +$31 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 07 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 05 $299 +$194 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 05 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 04 $48 +$132 +275%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 10¢ $35 1h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 AND Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a dr BUY 2¢ $5 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 1.5 AND Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY 6¢ $10 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Spread: England (-2.5) AND Will DR Congo BUY 10¢ $50 9h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 1.5 AND Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 AND Colo BUY 22¢ $73 13h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 1.5 AND Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 AND DR C SELL 14¢ $48 13h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 1.5 AND Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 AND Colo BUY 22¢ $20 13h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? AND Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan BUY 1¢ $5 13h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 1.5 AND Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 AND DR C BUY 16¢ $60 13h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: England (-2.5) AND Spread: Arge BUY 3¢ $10 14h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 2.5 AND New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4 BUY 4¢ $2 24h
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig BUY 1¢ $3 24h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY 16¢ $3 24h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 AND Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY 18¢ $3 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $231 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $180 35h
Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $12 35h
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? AND Exact Score: Norway 1 BUY 2¢ $3 35h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? AND Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Ar BUY 2¢ $5 35h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score AND Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals AND BUY 8¢ $18 36h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 AND Will United States win on 2026-06- BUY 26¢ $46 2d
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 2 Germany? AND Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 1 Côt BUY 2¢ $6 2d
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 2 Germany? AND Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 2 Côt BUY 6¢ $6 2d
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 3 Germany? AND Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 1 Côt BUY 2¢ $6 2d
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 3 Germany? AND Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 2 Côt BUY 2¢ $6 2d
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 2 Germany? AND Exact Score: Curaçao 1 - 1 Côt BUY 2¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.39 · official $26.96 · 1109 history records