Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:00:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

31 0x3144…0c55 other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 82d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$36 (+2%) realized +$37 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip

Net edge-21%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate29%2W / 5L

Drawdown84%max

Avg bet$298per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit38%portable

Net worth$266now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days$0

14 days$0

30 days+$63

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-20.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	4	+3.4%	-6.5%	50%	0%	-6.5%
≤90d	7	-12.4%	-20.7%	29%	0%	-8.1%
all	7	-12.4%	-20.7%	29%	0%	-8.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-20.7%	0%	-8.1%
10%	-28.3%	0%	-16.9%
15%	-35.2%	0%	-24.9%
20%	-41.6%	0%	-32.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 62% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +2% too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -12% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$32 vs −$15 · ×2.17 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.17 per $1 lost it wins $2.17

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage

Net worth$266

Realized+$37

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)29%

Wins / losses2 / 5

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)7 / 8

History coverage82d

Avg bet$298

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown84%

Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 7 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Modi out by December 31, 2026?	No	93¢	93¢	$267	$266	−$1 (-0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor?	Jun 02	$466	+$39	+8%
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026?	Jun 01	$468	$0	-0%
Spread: Rosenborg BK (-2.5)	May 26	$466	+$24	+5%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	May 25	$464	$0	+0%
Spread: Coventry City FC (-2.5)	Apr 17	$29	−$29	-100%
Will Oman join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	Apr 17	$124	$0	+0%
Will the Bank of Korea decrease the base rate after the May Meeting?	Mar 29	$101	$0	+0%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Modi out by December 31, 2026?	BUY No	93¢	$268	1h
Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor?	BUY No	92¢	$466	16d
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026?	SELL No	95¢	$467	16d
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026?	BUY No	96¢	$468	16d
Spread: Rosenborg BK (-2.5)	BUY KFUM-Kameratene Oslo	95¢	$466	23d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	SELL No	91¢	$464	23d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	BUY No	91¢	$464	23d
Spread: Coventry City FC (-2.5)	BUY Coventry City FC	8¢	$29	61d
Will Oman join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	SELL Yes	14¢	$3	61d
Will Oman join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	SELL Yes	14¢	$58	61d
Will Oman join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	SELL Yes	14¢	$63	61d
Will Oman join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	BUY Yes	14¢	$61	61d
Will Oman join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	BUY Yes	14¢	$63	61d
Will the Bank of Korea decrease the base rate after the May Meeting?	SELL No	90¢	$101	80d
Will the Bank of Korea decrease the base rate after the May Meeting?	BUY No	90¢	$101	81d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $266.19 · official $265.91 (match) · 18 history records