Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T16:26:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

31
0x3145…fcf5
sports · 504 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$258 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$384 · open −$25
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$34
Realized−$384
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses255 / 246
Est. fees paid−$114
Open positions3
Markets (closed)501 / 504
History coverage418d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%
Chart Positions 3 History 501 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$520
7 days+$17
14 days+$131
30 days+$131
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 9z 41¢ 18¢ $47 $21 −$26 (-55%)
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Germany 54¢ 54¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 11¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+61%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Under 82¢ 0¢ $75 $0 −$75 (-100%)
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Vitality 88¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Spirit 62¢ 0¢ $94 $0 −$94 (-100%)
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Alex de Minaur 79¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 53¢ 0¢ $79 $0 −$79 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 +$9 +180%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$3 +32%
Aleksandar Kovacevic vs. Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard: Total Sets O/U 2. Jun 14 $8 +$4 +54%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $5 +$8 +158%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $19 −$18 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $75 −$75 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $43 +$33 +76%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $80 −$79 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $39 −$39 -100%
Mattia Bellucci vs. Taylor Fritz: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 +$16 +158%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $9 +$15 +164%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $96 −$94 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $36 −$10 -29%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 12 $301 −$300 -100%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 12 $10 +$12 +114%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $10 +$14 +139%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $10 +$6 +62%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $41 +$17 +43%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Elena Rybakina vs. Tatjana Maria: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $20 +$8 +41%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 12 $1 +$1 +143%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $101 +$23 +23%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 12 $1 $0 +42%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $10 +$21 +206%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $30 +$23 +76%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $200 +$12 +6%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $15 +$8 +53%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $49 +$30 +62%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) Jun 11 $119 +$196 +165%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $13 +$10 +79%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 11 $51 −$51 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 11 $50 −$23 -46%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $11 +$6 +58%
Set Handicap: Yastremska (-1.5) vs Tomljanovic (+1.5) Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 11 $20 +$4 +22%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 11 $20 +$21 +105%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $33 +$11 +34%
Set Handicap: Kyrgios (-1.5) vs Shimabukuro (+1.5) Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $61 +$23 +38%
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Fucsovics (+1.5) Jun 11 $7 +$4 +55%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $18 +$13 +72%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 78% −$478
other 10% +$133
world 7% +$40
crypto 4% −$109
politics 0% +$11
economics 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 20¢ $3 36m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 25¢ $5 44m
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 54¢ $11 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 51¢ $9 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 48¢ $30 1h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 100¢ $14 1h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL MOUZ 100¢ $13 1h
Aleksandar Kovacevic vs. Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard: Total Sets O/U 2. SELL Under 2.5 100¢ $12 2h
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz SELL Ben Shelton 100¢ $13 2h
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur BUY Alex de Minaur 79¢ $19 2h
Aleksandar Kovacevic vs. Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard: Total Sets O/U 2. BUY Under 2.5 64¢ $8 2h
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 38¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 75¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 35¢ $5 2h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 82¢ $75 43h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Spirit 100¢ $75 44h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $80 45h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 56¢ $43 45h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 29¢ $5 46h
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz BUY Mattia Bellucci 23¢ $3 46h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $24 47h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY Spirit 62¢ $96 47h
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz BUY Mattia Bellucci 34¢ $20 47h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY Vitality 88¢ $301 47h
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz BUY Mattia Bellucci 57¢ $15 47h
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $22 47h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 37¢ $8 2d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 38¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $24 2d
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik SELL Alexander Bublik 100¢ $16 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 118 -3.8% -12.9% 58% 53% -9.3%
≤30d 132 +1.6% -8.1% 61% 56% -7.9%
≤90d 399 -17.8% -25.6% 49% 44% -13.6%
all 501 -14.2% -22.4% 51% 45% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.4% 45% -11.3%
10% -29.8% 36% -19.8%
15% -36.6% 29% -27.5%
20% -42.8% 20% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.75 · official $33.75 (match) · 1241 history records