Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:30:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x3146…be23 crypto 122 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (85 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$74 (-10%) realized −$74 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate65%78W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day84.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% +$22
other 11% −$66
sports 11% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (85 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 120 -9.2% -17.8% 65% 42% -18.9%
≤30d 120 -9.2% -17.8% 65% 42% -18.9%
≤90d 120 -9.2% -17.8% 65% 42% -18.9%
all 120 -9.2% -17.8% 65% 42% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover84.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.8% 42% -18.9%
10% ← realistic here -25.7% 22% -26.7%
15% -32.9% 12% -33.7%
20% -39.4% 6% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$74
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses78 / 42
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)120 / 122
History coverage4d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day84.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 120 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France leading at halftime? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $18 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $11 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +6%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $6 +$6 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -61%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$4 -90%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $9 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $3 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $3 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $3 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $3 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $3 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $3 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $3 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $3 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $3 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $3 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $3 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $3 58m
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 1h
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.87 · official $10.87 (match) · 470 history records