Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:10:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x3148…dcf4 crypto 405 markets active 2h ago coverage 731d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$30 (-0%) realized −$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate51%204W / 197L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$27
other 8% −$2
finance 4% −$1
tech 1% −$1
world 1% $0
politics 0% −$1
culture 0% $0
sports 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.0% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 57 -0.3% -9.8% 28% 2% -9.7%
≤90d 146 -1.4% -10.7% 38% 4% -9.8%
all 401 -2.1% -11.4% 51% 15% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 15% -9.8%
10% -19.9% 7% -18.5%
15% -27.6% 4% -26.3%
20% -34.7% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

731d coverage
Net worth$106
Realized−$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses204 / 197
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)401 / 405
History coverage731d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 401 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? No 95¢ 90¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
GTA 6 launch postponed again? No 83¢ 86¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 97¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? Jun 19 $101 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $160 in June? Jun 19 $130 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? Jun 18 $1 $0 -1%
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $1 $0 +2%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? Jun 17 $200 $0 -0%
Will Panama win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 -1%
Will Haiti win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will Uzbekistan win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2 $0 -0%
Jimmy Lai released by June 30? Jun 12 $4 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $2 $0 -2%
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 12 $2 $0 -1%
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $1 $0 -1%
Will Curaçao win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $2 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $175 in June? Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 10 $1 $0 -2%
Will Victoria Mboko be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 10 $1 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 10 $10 $0 -3%
Will Madison Keys be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 10 $1 $0 -2%
Will Belinda Bencic be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 10 $1 $0 -1%
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? Jun 10 $4 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 6? Jun 06 $20 $0 +0%
Epstein client list released by June 30? Jun 06 $4 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? Jun 06 $100 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June? Jun 05 $52 $0 -0%
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? Jun 04 $4 $0 -1%
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? Jun 04 $3 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $8,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $49 −$1 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? Jun 01 $100 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 May 30 $1 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May May 30 $2 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? May 30 $6 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? May 30 $30 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 28? May 28 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 28 $1 $0 +2%
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? May 28 $1 $0 -4%
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o May 28 $30 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? May 28 $90 $0 -0%
Solana Up or Down on May 26? May 26 $1 $0 +14%
Will BNB reach $1,000 in May? May 26 $0 $0 -0%
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA Wor May 26 $1 $0 -2%
Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 26 $1 $0 -1%
Will Francisco Cerundolo win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 26 $2 $0 -0%
Will Alex De Minaur win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 26 $2 $0 -0%
Will BNB reach $900 in May? May 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $160 in May? May 26 $50 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? May 26 $60 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? SELL No 100¢ $50 1h
Will Solana reach $160 in June? SELL No 100¢ $50 1h
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? BUY No 95¢ $2 28h
GTA 6 launch postponed again? BUY No 83¢ $1 28h
Will Solana reach $160 in June? BUY No 100¢ $50 28h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? BUY No 100¢ $50 28h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? SELL No 99¢ $1 28h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? SELL No 100¢ $1 28h
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1 28h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $100 46h
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? BUY No 95¢ $1 3d
GTA 6 launch postponed again? BUY No 83¢ $1 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $100 3d
Will Panama win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $1 3d
Will Haiti win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1 3d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1 3d
Will Uzbekistan win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $2 6d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $100 6d
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $1 7d
Will Panama win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $1 7d
Will Uzbekistan win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $2 7d
Will Haiti win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $1 7d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 7d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $100 7d
Jimmy Lai released by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1 7d
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 87¢ $1 7d
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105.76 · official $105.76 (match) · 1020 history records