Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:05:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x3148…b499 crypto 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$52 (-12%) realized −$52 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate50%23W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day11.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$110
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -11.2% -19.6% 50% 46% -33.0%
≤30d 46 -11.2% -19.6% 50% 46% -33.0%
≤90d 46 -11.2% -19.6% 50% 46% -33.0%
all 46 -11.2% -19.6% 50% 46% -33.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.6% 46% -33.0%
10% -27.3% 37% -39.4%
15% -34.4% 35% -45.3%
20% -40.8% 35% -50.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$10 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$52
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses23 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 46
History coverage5d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day11.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 46 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 27 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 27 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 25 $16 +$16 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 25 $15 +$5 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 24 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 24 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 24 $36 −$15 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 22 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 22 $15 +$10 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$9 +166%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$12 +235%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$7 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 22 $31 −$25 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$7 +132%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $16 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $15 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $20 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $16 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $16 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $19 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $20 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 96 history records