Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:14:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x314a…dea4 crypto 145 markets active 5d ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$52 (-3%) realized −$52 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%72W / 73L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$78
14 days−$78
30 days−$117
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$123
other 3% +$1
sports 3% +$11
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -45.3% -50.5% 25% 25% -64.6%
≤30d 16 -31.9% -38.4% 31% 31% -62.7%
≤90d 145 -2.4% -11.7% 50% 50% -15.5%
all 145 -2.4% -11.7% 50% 50% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 50% -15.5%
10% -20.2% 42% -23.6%
15% -27.9% 36% -31.0%
20% -35.0% 30% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$9 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$52
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses72 / 73
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)145 / 145
History coverage50d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 145 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $20 +$5 +26%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 $0 -4%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $30 −$27 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $13 −$13 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 13 $19 −$18 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 02 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 01 $2 +$3 +167%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 25 $5 +$8 +154%
Solana Up or Down - May 25, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 25 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 05 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 05 $5 +$5 +89%
Solana Up or Down - May 4, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 04 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 04 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 04 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 03 $27 −$21 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 03 $14 +$2 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 03 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 03 $10 +$6 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 03 $11 +$4 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 03 $11 +$11 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 03 $5 +$6 +118%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 03 $5 +$7 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 03 $11 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 03 $8 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 03 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 03 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 03 $6 +$5 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 03 $9 +$36 +387%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 03 $5 +$3 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 03 $8 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 03 $8 +$9 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 02 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 02 $16 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 01 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 01 $16 −$15 -96%
Solana Up or Down - May 1, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 01 $5 +$4 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 01 $21 +$9 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 01 $17 +$10 +58%
Solana Up or Down - May 1, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 01 $10 +$10 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $10 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 58¢ $10 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 81¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 494 history records