Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:27:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x314d…9a03 world 74 markets active 1h ago coverage 491d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate37%27W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% −$2
other 21% $0
sports 14% −$11
politics 12% $0
economics 5% $0
finance 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +2.2% -7.5% 75% 0% -7.9%
≤30d 23 +0.3% -9.3% 39% 4% -9.5%
≤90d 72 -2.8% -12.0% 38% 3% -9.6%
all 73 -4.1% -13.2% 37% 3% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 3% -10.0%
10% -21.5% 0% -18.6%
15% -29.1% 0% -26.4%
20% -36.1% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

491d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses27 / 46
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)73 / 74
History coverage491d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 89¢ 91¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $62 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $32 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $35 +$1 +2%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $30 +$2 +6%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $30 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $96 −$1 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $67 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $60 +$1 +2%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $31 −$1 -3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $31 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $31 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 08 $16 +$2 +13%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $28 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $22 −$2 -8%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $33 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $33 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $35 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 29 $62 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 28 $66 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $33 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $36 −$2 -6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $36 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $33 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 23 $34 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 20 $31 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 18 $31 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 18 $40 $0 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $16 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $30 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 14 $33 $0 -0%
Will Yoo Jeong-bok win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? May 11 $75 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $2 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 11 $63 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 10 $12 −$2 -20%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 15, 2026? May 10 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $45 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $35 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $18 $0 -1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $138 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $32 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 23 $3 $0 +3%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $6 $0 -1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 21 $100 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $37 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 20 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $35 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 19 $35 $0 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 19 $32 $0 +0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 16 $64 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $35 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $35 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $32 15h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $32 18h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 45¢ $36 26h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 44¢ $35 28h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $21 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $10 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $8 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $24 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $22 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $22 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 84¢ $32 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 79¢ $30 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $10 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $30 8d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $30 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $33 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $33 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $29 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $1 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $29 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 11d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 11d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $33 11d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $34 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.81 · official $0.00 (match) · 280 history records