Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:39:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
31 0x314e…684a world 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$109 (+2%) realized +$101 · open +$8
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate50%10W / 10L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$269per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$382now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$20
30 days+$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 39% +$87
world 37% +$4
other 24% +$23
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 100% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 6 +1.8% -7.9% 67% 0% -7.1%
≤90d 19 -3.6% -12.8% 53% 0% -7.7%
all 20 -3.4% -12.6% 50% 0% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 0% -7.7%
10% -21.0% 0% -16.5%
15% -28.6% 0% -24.6%
20% -35.6% 0% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$12 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.86 per $1 lost it wins $3.86
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$382
Realized+$101
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses10 / 10
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)20 / 21
History coverage91d
Avg bet$269
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by August 31? No 96¢ 98¢ $374 $382 +$8 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027? Jun 20 $309 $0 +0%
Antonio Rüdiger: 1+ assists Jun 14 $495 +$15 +3%
Foreign intervention in Gaza by June 30? Jun 14 $489 +$5 +1%
Georgia vs. Romania: O/U 0.5 Jun 03 $480 +$40 +8%
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $478 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 28 $8 $0 -2%
Spread: FC St. Pauli 1910 (-2.5) May 04 $447 +$22 +5%
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? May 03 $447 $0 +0%
Spread: Kayserispor (-2.5) Apr 20 $36 −$36 -100%
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30? Apr 20 $29 $0 +0%
Spread: Konyaspor (-2.5) Apr 20 $380 +$24 +6%
Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 202 Apr 17 $379 $0 +0%
Spread: Brisbane Roar FC (-2.5) Apr 03 $230 +$8 +4%
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? Apr 02 $10 −$1 -8%
Spread: AA Ponte Preta (-1.5) Apr 02 $214 +$21 +10%
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Apr 01 $194 $0 +0%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Apr 01 $207 +$3 +1%
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? Mar 30 $207 $0 +0%
Spread: Peru (-1.5) Mar 30 $202 +$6 +3%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Mar 28 $29 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by August 31? BUY No 96¢ $374 1h
Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027? SELL No 95¢ $309 6d
Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027? BUY No 95¢ $309 7d
Antonio Rüdiger: 1+ assists BUY No 97¢ $495 13d
Foreign intervention in Gaza by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $494 13d
Foreign intervention in Gaza by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $489 13d
Georgia vs. Romania: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $480 25d
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $478 25d
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $478 25d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $7 29d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $8 29d
Spread: FC St. Pauli 1910 (-2.5) BUY 1. FSV Mainz 05 95¢ $447 54d
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $447 54d
Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $447 55d
Spread: Kayserispor (-2.5) BUY Kayserispor $19 67d
Spread: Kayserispor (-2.5) BUY Kayserispor $13 67d
Spread: Kayserispor (-2.5) BUY Kayserispor $4 67d
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30? SELL Yes $15 68d
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30? SELL Yes $14 68d
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30? BUY Yes $15 68d
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30? BUY Yes $14 68d
Spread: Konyaspor (-2.5) BUY Antalyaspor 94¢ $380 70d
Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 202 SELL No 99¢ $379 70d
Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 202 BUY No 99¢ $281 70d
Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 202 BUY No 99¢ $99 70d
Spread: Brisbane Roar FC (-2.5) BUY Sydney FC 97¢ $230 85d
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $4 85d
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 85d
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 85d
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $5 85d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $382.20 · official $380.25 (match) · 55 history records