trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | -1.0% | -10.4% | 0% | 0% | -9.6% |
| ≤30d | 3 | -34.0% | -40.3% | 0% | 0% | -9.7% |
| ≤90d | 6 | -16.6% | -24.6% | 17% | 0% | -9.6% |
| all | 29 | -6.6% | -15.5% | 55% | 0% | -9.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -15.5% | 0% | -9.7% |
| 10% | -23.6% | 0% | -18.3% |
| 15% | -31.0% | 0% | -26.2% |
| 20% | -37.7% | 0% | -33.5% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | No | 51¢ | 50¢ | $43 | $42 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | Jun 23 | $4 | $0 | -2% |
| Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? | Jun 23 | $64 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma | May 27 | $0 | $0 | -55% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | May 24 | $74 | −$1 | -2% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | May 24 | $49 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | May 23 | $35 | +$2 | +4% |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? | Dec 14 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? | Jul 01 | $8 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? | Jun 03 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Finland win Eurovision 2025? | May 20 | $14 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec | May 15 | $8 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? | May 11 | $8 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? | May 10 | $8 | $0 | +0% |
| Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% in April? | May 10 | $8 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Mario Grech be the next pope? | May 10 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? | May 09 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Jerome Powell say "good afternoon" during the May meeting? | May 08 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? | May 08 | $6 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Ethereum reach $2600 in April? | May 07 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? | May 07 | $6 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? | Apr 19 | $2 | $0 | -11% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in April? | Apr 18 | $8 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 51°F or below on March 25? | Mar 26 | $13 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? | Mar 24 | $2 | $0 | -4% |
| Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in his first 100 days? | Mar 18 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? | Mar 17 | $12 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 16 | $11 | $0 | -2% |
| Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? | Mar 16 | $13 | $0 | +4% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be between 42-43°F on March 11? | Mar 12 | $13 | $0 | +1% |