Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:19:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
31 0x3158…3407 sports 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$33 (+14%) realized +$36 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$49
other 9% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +18.4% +7.2% 67% 67% +6.7%
≤30d 6 +18.4% +7.2% 67% 67% +6.7%
≤90d 6 +18.4% +7.2% 67% 67% +6.7%
all 6 +18.4% +7.2% 67% 67% +6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.2% 67% +6.7%
10% -3.1% 50% -3.5%
15% -12.5% 50% -12.8%
20% -21.0% 50% -21.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$13 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.23 per $1 lost it wins $2.23
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized+$36
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage3d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 75¢ 66¢ $30 $26 −$4 (-13%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Under 51¢ 56¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $15 +$9 +62%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$12 +114%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $15 +$18 +119%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $108 +$17 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL 9z 44¢ $18 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 48¢ $20 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 75¢ $30 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $15 25h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $10 25h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $15 42h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 38¢ $5 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 3d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Cabo Verde 99¢ $117 3d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 74¢ $88 3d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Spain 27¢ $9 3d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 59¢ $10 3d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 63¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.28 · official $37.29 (match) · 21 history records