Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:54:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x3158…459b world 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 276d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate24%12W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% $0
other 19% −$1
crypto 12% $0
politics 12% $0
sports 11% $0
economics 4% $0
culture 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.7% -8.9% 38% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 10 -4.6% -13.7% 30% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 10 -4.6% -13.7% 30% 0% -9.8%
all 50 -1.0% -10.5% 24% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 0% -9.7%
10% -19.0% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.9% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

276d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses12 / 38
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage276d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 95¢ 95¢ $31 $31 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $33 +$1 +4%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 16 $4 $0 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 16 $15 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $93 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $30 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $30 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $5 −$2 -50%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $35 −$1 -2%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Jan 31 $26 −$1 -3%
Will Israel strike Syria by September 30? Oct 05 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 04 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 04 $18 $0 +0%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December Oct 04 $24 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Oct 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Oct 01 $25 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 30 $26 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Sep 27 $30 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 27 $4 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in September? Sep 26 $27 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 26 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 26 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 25 $8 $0 -2%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 25 $22 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Sep 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $150 in September? Sep 25 $21 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in September? Sep 24 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 23 $19 $0 +0%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30? Sep 23 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 22 $19 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 22 $13 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 22 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Sep 22 $30 $0 -0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 21 $25 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 21 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 21 $1 $0 -4%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia? Sep 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Sep 19 $24 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 17 $31 $0 +0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 16 $31 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Sep 15 $31 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $31 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $35 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $33 9h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $4 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $15 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $15 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $22 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $8 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $33 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $33 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $29 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $1 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $6 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $24 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 15¢ $16 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 15¢ $4 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 15¢ $20 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $30 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $30 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $30 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 97¢ $30 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 78¢ $15 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 78¢ $16 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 75¢ $29 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $4 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 6¢ $2 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 12¢ $5 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.47 · official $31.47 (match) · 185 history records