Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:13:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x315a…222e crypto 416 markets active 2h ago coverage 39d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 39d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (81 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$6,899 (+19%) realized +$6,899 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate41%256W / 364L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day80.8pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 39d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$6,272
sports 2% +$960
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (81 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-30.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 274 -66.2% -69.4% 22% 21% -40.9%
≤30d 364 -42.0% -47.6% 34% 32% -21.0%
≤90d 620 -22.6% -30.0% 41% 38% -14.5%
all 620 -22.6% -30.0% 41% 38% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover80.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.0% 38% -14.5%
10% ← realistic here -36.7% 28% -22.7%
15% -42.8% 21% -30.1%
20% -48.4% 15% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -53% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$48 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6,899
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses256 / 364
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)620 / 416
History coverage39d ⚠
Avg bet$87
Trades / day80.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 620 Trades
no open positions (312 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 20 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 20 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 20 $108 −$108 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 20 $86 −$86 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 20 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 20 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 20 $68 −$68 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 20 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 20 $91 −$91 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 20 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 20 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 20 $137 −$137 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 20 $61 −$61 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 20 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 20 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 20 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 20 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 20 $273 −$273 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 20 $112 −$112 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 20 $86 −$86 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 20 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 20 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 20 $66 −$66 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 20 $61 −$61 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 20 $44 −$44 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $18 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $40 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $12 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $56 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $13 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $36 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $13 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $8 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $18 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $42 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $36 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records