Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:39:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

31
0x315a…5724
crypto · 7 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$27 -21%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$25 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$17
Realized−$25
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day24.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%
Chart Positions 1 History 6 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days−$25
14 days−$25
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $19 $17 −$2 (-10%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Up 21¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Up 13¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$5 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $16 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +2%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $8 +$9 +112%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $28 −$21 -74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 56% −$13
other 37% −$23
sports 6% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 26¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 1h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 70¢ $17 1h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $8 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 13¢ $7 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 3h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 51¢ $25 3h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $15 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-31.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -24.5% -31.7% 50% 33% -36.4%
≤30d 6 -24.5% -31.7% 50% 33% -36.4%
≤90d 6 -24.5% -31.7% 50% 33% -36.4%
all 6 -24.5% -31.7% 50% 33% -36.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover24.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.7% 33% -36.4%
10% ← realistic here -38.2% 17% -42.5%
15% -44.2% 17% -48.1%
20% -49.6% 17% -53.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.10 · official $17.10 (match) · 25 history records