Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:22:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
31 0x315f…b1c4 other 61 markets active 2h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$428 (+8%) realized +$286 · open +$142
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate38%20W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$787now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$55
7 days−$138
14 days+$109
30 days+$109
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% +$438
crypto 28% −$255
world 2% +$22
sports 1% −$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +3.2% -6.6% 31% 31% -12.9%
≤30d 43 +10.7% +0.2% 35% 35% -7.1%
≤90d 53 +2.3% -7.4% 38% 32% -9.2%
all 53 +2.3% -7.4% 38% 32% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 32% -9.2%
10% -16.3% 32% -17.9%
15% -24.4% 28% -25.8%
20% -31.8% 26% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$88 vs −$53 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$787
Realized+$286
Unrealized+$142
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses20 / 33
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 61
History coverage52d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $645 $787 +$142 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $152 −$7 -4%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 −$1 -10%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1,012 +$527 +52%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $467 −$460 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $41 −$9 -21%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $41 −$6 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $11 +$40 +373%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $21 +$45 +212%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $102 +$354 +346%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $160 −$159 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AN Jun 17 $61 −$41 -68%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $89 +$22 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $152 −$50 -33%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 15 $230 −$108 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10AM ET Jun 15 $152 −$119 -78%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Jun 15 $44 +$17 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $93 −$93 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $152 −$152 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $34 +$57 +166%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15 Jun 15 $101 −$87 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$11 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 +$54 +183%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $22 −$17 -75%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $31 +$41 +134%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $29 −$11 -38%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $174 +$107 +61%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $16 −$4 -26%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $46 +$36 +79%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 +$75 +377%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND W Jun 13 $45 −$9 -20%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $122 +$107 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$30 +114%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $82 +$119 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 10 $76 −$9 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Apr 29 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Apr 29 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Apr 29 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 29 $53 −$44 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Apr 29 $104 +$106 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Apr 29 $102 +$24 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 29 $58 +$3 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 56¢ $145 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 BUY 39¢ $68 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $152 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $192 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $10 1h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 13h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 14¢ $15 13h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 13h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 94¢ $1,538 18h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $1,012 26h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 26¢ $61 35h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 19¢ $32 36h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $406 36h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 23¢ $41 37h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 25¢ $36 41h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $51 43h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL 32¢ $35 43h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY 36¢ $41 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 26¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $11 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? AN BUY 32¢ $33 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $66 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $21 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 96¢ $0 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 96¢ $456 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 0¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $786.84 · official $853.84 · 156 history records