Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:09:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x3162…d21c sports 222 markets active 2h ago coverage 238d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$923 (-6%) realized −$946 · open +$23
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate50%107W / 108L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$281now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$46
7 days+$55
14 days−$117
30 days−$166
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$473
other 17% −$152
crypto 17% −$80
politics 6% −$8
weather 2% −$69
world 1% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-23.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +6.1% -4.0% 67% 67% +1.7%
≤30d 13 -10.9% -19.4% 54% 38% -20.9%
≤90d 52 -30.9% -37.4% 44% 25% -15.4%
all 215 -15.8% -23.8% 50% 40% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.8% 40% -14.4%
10% -31.1% 33% -22.6%
15% -37.8% 27% -30.1%
20% -43.9% 24% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$22 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage
Net worth$281
Realized−$946
Unrealized+$23
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses107 / 108
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions7
Markets (closed)215 / 222
History coverage238d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 215 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $99 $98 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $29 $44 +$15 (+53%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $43 $44 +$1 (+3%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $27 +$7 (+33%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $15 $17 +$2 (+14%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $15 $14 −$1 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 77 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $89 +$25 +29%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $15 +$7 +48%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $90 +$14 +15%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $116 +$21 +18%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $121 −$5 -4%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $10 −$7 -69%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $397 −$222 -56%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $171 +$51 +30%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $15 +$1 +5%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $32 −$1 -3%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 30 $36 −$36 -98%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $234 +$2 +1%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $149 −$15 -10%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals May 24 $1,007 −$416 -41%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 22 $580 +$29 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 22? May 22 $569 +$1 +0%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings May 21 $486 +$90 +18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21? May 21 $489 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 21? May 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 20? May 20 $498 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 20? May 19 $499 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 18? May 17 $24 −$23 -97%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals May 17 $440 +$50 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 17? May 17 $21 +$20 +97%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru May 17 $361 +$68 +19%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans May 16 $352 +$15 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 16? May 16 $370 −$3 -1%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings May 15 $359 +$13 +4%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians May 14 $669 −$431 -64%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 12 $142 +$58 +41%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Mumbai Indians May 10 $34 −$1 -4%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants May 10 $58 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on May 11? May 10 $15 −$3 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on May 11? May 10 $7 −$7 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 11? May 10 $10 −$9 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 10? May 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Gujarat Titans May 10 $506 +$54 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on May 10? May 09 $7 −$7 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 10? May 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 10? May 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on May 10? May 09 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on May 10? May 09 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 10? May 09 $12 −$12 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 10? May 09 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 10? May 09 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on May 10? May 09 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on May 9? May 09 $51 −$50 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 9? May 09 $112 +$52 +46%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Kolkata Knight Riders May 08 $500 +$66 +13%
Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 04 $240 −$12 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $100 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $37 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 67¢ $46 7h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $89 16h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $15 16h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 96¢ $104 17h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $90 46h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 87¢ $137 6d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $116 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 58¢ $116 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $121 6d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $221 7d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 92¢ $221 7d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $171 7d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 75¢ $171 7d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $176 7d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $15 13d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 13d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $16 13d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $15 13d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $17 13d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans BUY Gujarat Titans 48¢ $36 24d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals SELL Gujarat Titans 100¢ $236 25d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Gujarat Titans 99¢ $234 25d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $133 26d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $13 30d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $149 30d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $16 30d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $30 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $281.07 · official $281.07 (match) · 491 history records