Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:21:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x3162…087b sports 235 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$91 (-6%) realized −$95 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate55%125W / 104L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day28.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$91
7 days−$118
14 days−$118
30 days−$111
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% +$7
sports 28% −$54
weather 19% −$53
other 2% −$2
politics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 154 -14.0% -22.2% 38% 31% -25.9%
≤30d 229 -8.5% -17.2% 55% 29% -16.8%
≤90d 229 -8.5% -17.2% 55% 29% -16.8%
all 229 -8.5% -17.2% 55% 29% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.2% 29% -16.8%
10% ← realistic here -25.1% 20% -24.8%
15% -32.4% 17% -32.0%
20% -39.0% 10% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$95
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses125 / 104
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions6
Markets (closed)229 / 235
History coverage18d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day28.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 229 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 25? Yes 25¢ 30¢ $38 $45 +$7 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 25? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+30%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 25? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 24? Yes 32¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+215%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 25? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-95%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 24? Yes 80¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 24? Jun 24 $5 +$2 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 24? Jun 24 $5 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 24? Jun 24 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on June 24? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 24 $43 −$7 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 26? Jun 24 $1 $0 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 23? Jun 24 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 24 $49 −$15 -31%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 24 $10 −$4 -38%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $5 +$4 +84%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $10 +$1 +14%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 24 $5 +$2 +45%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
ITF Palma Del Rio: Min Liu vs Berta Bonardi Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $10 +$10 +98%
ITF Palma Del Rio: Polina Isakova vs Anna Kubareva Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $1 $0 -7%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 8.5 Jun 23 $1 $0 -2%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 23 $1 $0 -0%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $3 $0 -8%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 23 $1 $0 -0%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: South Africa 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $2 $0 -6%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1 $0 -13%
Norway vs. France: France O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $2 $0 -8%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $2 $0 -9%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $5 −$1 -15%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 23 $2 $0 -3%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 23 $2 $0 -4%
ITF Taipei: Kayo Nishimura vs Yu Ning Tsai Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 23 $2 +$1 +59%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $2 +$3 +135%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $1 $0 +45%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $4 −$3 -63%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 12.5 Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 23 $1 +$6 +507%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-7.5) Jun 23 $1 $0 +2%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 177.5 Jun 23 $1 $0 +2%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 175.5 Jun 23 $4 +$1 +33%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 Jun 23 $2 $0 +25%
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $1 $0 +13%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 23 $2 $0 +8%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 25? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 25? BUY Yes 24¢ $34 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 25? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 25? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL No 45¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL No 49¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL No 48¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 24? SELL Yes 43¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL No 48¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 24? SELL Yes 33¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL No 53¢ $4 6h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 24? SELL Yes 34¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL No 58¢ $22 6h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 61¢ $43 6h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 26? SELL No 53¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 26? SELL No 53¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 26? SELL No 55¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 26? SELL No 56¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 26? SELL No 57¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 26? SELL No 59¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 26? BUY No 64¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 24? SELL Yes 30¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 24? SELL Yes 30¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 24? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 24? SELL Yes 30¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 24? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 24? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 9h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY Atlanta Braves 11¢ $5 15h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY Atlanta Braves 11¢ $1 15h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY Atlanta Braves 25¢ $3 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.33 · official $54.12 (match) · 678 history records