Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T16:27:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

31
0x3162…da1a
crypto · 1121 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$34 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$194 · open −$16
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$52
Realized−$194
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses596 / 521
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1117 / 1121
History coverage83d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day27.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 3 History 1117 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$36
7 days+$90
14 days+$90
30 days+$90
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Leviatán Esports 75¢ 70¢ $41 $38 −$2 (-6%)
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Legacy 39¢ 38¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Monte 30¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Down 59¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Down 70¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Down 69¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Valencia CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) Tatsuro Taira 61¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs G2 Esports 43¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will CSyD Defensa y Justicia vs. CA Talleres end in a draw? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
BMW Open: Alexander Zverev vs Miomir Kecmanovic Miomir Kecmanovic 6¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +50%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $11 −$6 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$12 +114%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $27 −$12 -44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $30 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $31 −$2 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$3 +13%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $10 +$12 +120%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 +$11 +442%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$6 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $25 −$2 -8%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$5 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 14 $19 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$6 +20%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$6 +122%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$6 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Endrick: 1+ goals Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $40 +$21 +51%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$9 -89%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $20 +$19 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$5 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $14 −$6 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $21 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$4 +40%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $42 −$2 -4%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $20 +$11 +58%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $20 +$12 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$12 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $12 −$12 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 80% −$106
sports 16% −$16
other 4% −$88
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 75¢ $41 10m
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 39¢ $14 12m
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London SELL Leviatán Esports 63¢ $55 15m
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 78¢ $69 1h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 30¢ $13 2h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 62¢ $33 2h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 63¢ $34 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 27¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $2 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $25 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Down 18¢ $2 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $7 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $22 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $25 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $29 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $25 4h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 60¢ $10 4h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 58¢ $11 4h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 68¢ $22 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 132 -3.6% -12.8% 52% 46% -2.7%
≤30d 132 -3.6% -12.8% 52% 46% -2.7%
≤90d 1117 -6.3% -15.2% 53% 47% -11.3%
all 1117 -6.3% -15.2% 53% 47% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover27.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.2% 47% -11.3%
10% ← realistic here -23.3% 40% -19.8%
15% -30.7% 33% -27.5%
20% -37.5% 25% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.28 · official $52.28 (match) · 2822 history records