Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:27:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
31 0x3163…a9fd crypto 479 markets active 0h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$87 (-4%) realized −$113 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate55%262W / 217L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day14.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$28
7 days−$25
14 days−$25
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$113
politics 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 83 -10.8% -19.3% 47% 29% -21.5%
≤30d 83 -10.8% -19.3% 47% 29% -21.5%
≤90d 314 -8.5% -17.3% 53% 26% -13.6%
all 479 -9.5% -18.1% 55% 31% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.1% 31% -14.3%
10% -25.9% 18% -22.5%
15% -33.1% 9% -30.0%
20% -39.6% 6% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$113
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses262 / 217
Open positions0
Markets (closed)479 / 479
History coverage105d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day14.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 479 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -88%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -71%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$4 -82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -56%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$1 -18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$3 -72%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -39%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -51%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $1 17m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 17m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $1 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $3 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $2 44m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 44m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $2 51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Up 26¢ $2 54m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Up 15¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Up 14¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 14¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1700 history records