Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:37:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
31 0x3164…3590 world 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 250d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$31 (-5%) realized −$34 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate27%8W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% −$30
other 25% $0
politics 11% $0
crypto 7% $0
sports 4% $0
tech 4% +$1
culture 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 12 -3.2% -12.4% 33% 17% -18.6%
≤90d 13 -1.8% -11.1% 38% 23% -18.5%
all 30 -1.1% -10.5% 27% 10% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 10% -14.2%
10% -19.0% 3% -22.4%
15% -26.9% 0% -29.9%
20% -34.0% 0% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 58% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

250d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses8 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage250d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 67¢ 74¢ $28 $31 +$3 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $17 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $53 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $31 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 08 $10 −$1 -13%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $23 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $6 −$1 -12%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $2 +$1 +28%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $1 $0 +13%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $30 −$1 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $29 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $107 −$27 -26%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $9 −$2 -26%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $1 $0 +15%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 26 $23 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $21 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Nov 20 $22 +$1 +3%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Oct 24 $22 $0 +0%
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamen Oct 24 $21 $0 +2%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 21 $21 $0 -0%
Trump out as President in 2025? Oct 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Oct 20 $19 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 20 $2 $0 -11%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 19 $21 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Oct 19 $21 $0 +0%
Will the federal government be shut down for 30 or more days in 2025? Oct 18 $20 $0 -1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 18 $22 $0 -1%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 13 $22 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $28 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $17 13h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $17 14h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $28 15h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $28 21h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $31 33h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $31 33h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $25 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $25 2d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 27¢ $9 11d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $23 15d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $23 15d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 18d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $22 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $7 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $30 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $29 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $29 20d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 38¢ $30 21d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 69¢ $55 21d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 4¢ $6 21d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 5¢ $9 21d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 74¢ $1 22d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 74¢ $48 22d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 78¢ $10 22d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 78¢ $42 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.87 · official $30.87 (match) · 100 history records